April 5, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 052108
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
510 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY
BUILD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BREEZE AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 430 PM…THE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED THE CLOUDS WERE
BREAKING UP SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK. TEMPERATURES
HOWEVER…REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE…GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S MID
HUDSON VALLEYS…40S MOST OTHER PLACES…EXCEPT UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

THERE WAS NO SIGN OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGH THE EVENING…LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE SAME…BRISK WITH THE
CLOUDS PROBABLY BREAKING UP A BIT MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND AROUND 50 THROUGH SUNSET. IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

AFTER SUNDOWN…UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY…TEMPERATURES WILL INTO
AND EVEN THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE LATTER EVENING…AND THEN DOWN
INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. SOME TEENS WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH…DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10
MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
THE SETUP FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT LOW PRESSURE WILL
ACROSS LABRADOR…FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN TODAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR JAMES BAY AND THERE WILL REMAIN A
SOMEWHAT STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A
DEEP MIXING LEVEL TO ABOUT 6000 FEET WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE
FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH…GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH AT
TIMES. WITH A MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW…THERE WILL BE MORE
SUNSHINE…ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL WORK SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA. AT
THE SAME TIME…AN OCEAN SURFACE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE WELL
OFFSHORE. THESE TWO FEATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY SPAWN SOME CLOUDINESS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW…DID NOT
MENTION ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

BY SUNDAY…THE AFOREMENTIONED OCEAN STORM LOOKS TO RETROGRADE BACK
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES…INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS STORM
LOOKS TO EFFECTIVELY PINCH OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THEREFORE
WE NEVER LOOK TO REALLY GET INTO THE REALLY WARM AIR THAT WE THOUGH
EARLIER. THE GOOD NEWS…SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE …AND TEMPERATURES LOOK AT LEAST SEASONABLE…SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S VALLEY LOCATIONS…ONLY 40S HIGHER
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY…HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 60 TO 65 MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD….NEAR 60 CAPITAL DISTRICT…50S
MOST OTHER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS UNDER
A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY…20S OUTLYING AREAS…AROUND 30 IN THE
TRI-CITY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE PERIOD FROM THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
UNSETTLED. THE MAIN SYSTEM IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TOWARD JAMES BAY AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. WHILE IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION…GENERALLY
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S…EXCEPT
ON MONDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE WITH PRECIPITATION NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT 18Z/FRIDAY. STRATOCU WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-14 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON…WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS WITH WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 12 KTS FRIDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK…
FRI-SUN…VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
…A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BETWEEN 100 PM TO 8PM FRIDAY…

WITH AN ANTICIPATED SLIGHT BREEZE MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
PLACES…WE DO NOT EXPECT A FULL RECOVERY IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
AS THE RH LOOKS TO ONLY REACH 75-89 PERCENT RANGE. A NEAR FULL
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN…ESPECIALLY
ADIRONDACKS.

THEN ON FRIDAY…THE COMBINATION OF MIXING FROM ABOUT THE 6000 FOOT
LEVEL…WILL SEND RH VALUES TO VERY LOW LEVELS BY AFTERNOON…WELL
UNDER 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH AND DUE TO
THE DEEP MIXING…WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON…30 TO 35 MPH HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY MIGHT BE ONE PLACE WHERE THE WIND MIGHT FAIL
TO PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25 MPH BUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CATSKILLS…IT COULD GUST OVER 35 MPH. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE
THAN CLOUDS.

FOR NOW…SINCE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE REGION REACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS (IE-RED FLAG THRESHOLD)…IS AROUND 50
PERCENT…WE PLACED ALL AREAS IN THE WATCH. THE MIDNIGHT CREW WILL
MAKE THE FINAL CALL WHO GETS A RED FLAG OR NOT.

CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE
LESS BREEZY (NORTHWEST) WITH RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN 30 PERCENT OR LESS
ALONG WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.

DRY WEATHER INTO SUNDAY BUT AFTER THAT…A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN MIGHT MEAN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER INCLUDING A BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

ANY ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BROUGHT VIRTUALLY NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THE REGION. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. AFTER THAT…THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084.
MA…FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…11
FIRE WEATHER…HWJIV
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV

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