March 30, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 301304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY. A STORM
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE RAIN OR EVEN SNOW TO THE REGION…MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 730 AM…SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS…ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING STORM…STILL WELL WEST OF
NY STATE. CONCERN ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
COULD THIS HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE 06Z NAM
DOES NOT BELIEVE SO…QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR LOWER COMPARED TO THE 00Z
RUN.

FOR NOW…JUST RE-TOOLED THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LOWERED CLOUD
COVER TO NEAR CLEAR.

THROUGH THE MORNING…LOOK FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE…THE HIGH CLOUDS
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

NOT MUCH WIND TODAY…THE SUN SHOULD HELP MIXING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S…SOME AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/…
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME CONVECTION SEEN NOW IN THE OH VALLEY AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING BUT DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND WILL FEATURE
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND NORTHERN
STREAM ORIGINS SHOULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE THOUGH. STILL…SOME RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE VT/MA STATE BORDER…WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NORTH.

DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER…
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN OR A MIX…THEN AS THE COLUMN
COOLS…SHOULD CHANGE TO WET SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
SOME TIME SATURDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET
SNOW IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES…WITH DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS POSSIBLY
SCATTERED AROUND ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND OTHER AREAS
OUTSIDE THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND FREEZING…A LITTLE COOLER IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION WHEE SNOW COULD BE
LIMITED AND THERE COULD BE SOME THIN AREAS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

THE SKY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR SATURDAY AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LINGERING UPPER ENERGY COULD PREVENT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE POSSIBLE LIMITED SUN AND WEAK MIXING…HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN…MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BUT DECENT
DYNAMICS AND FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AS CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY…HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S…WITH SOME UPPER 40S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT…WITH SOME MIXING WITH SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S…SOME AROUND 30 IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A BLOCKY PATTERN DURING THE
LONG TERM. INITIALLY…THIS MAY BENEFIT OUR REGION BY DELAYING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT UNTIL LATE
TUE OR WED. THEN…THE BLOCK STRENGTHENS…WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IN TERMS OF AMBIENT WEATHER…IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR
MON-MON NT…WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS TUE INTO WED.
THEN…ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR THU…ESP ACROSS NORTHERN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS…ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HERE ARE THE SPECIFICS…
MON-MON NT…IT NOW APPEARS THAT A RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME…BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER…WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES…WITH MAX TEMPS
REACHING THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS…AND 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS…AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
35-40 RANGE IN MOST VALLEYS…WITH 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

TUE-WED…HAVE INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS TUE…WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS BY AFTERNOON. THEN…CHC POPS REGION WIDE TUE NT INTO
WED MORNING…TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY LATE WED. IT APPEARS THAT
OUR REGION WILL BE DOMINATED LARGELY BY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DURING THIS TIME…WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY…WITH DEEP MOISTURE MAINLY TRAPPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
U.S. SO…AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS…WITH TUE MAXES REACHING 55-65 IN MOST
AREAS…WARMEST WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TUE
NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S IN
VALLEYS…AND MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON WED…EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO TUE…GENERALLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS…AND 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU…UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY FROM
COOLING ALOFT…AND THE POSSIBILITY OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW…SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND AT
LEAST SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS…WITH SOME
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS…ESP THU AFTERNOON. EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS…WITH MAXES GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS…AND 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS…ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY REMAIN IN THE 30S. WED NT/THU AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS…AND 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY
AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS…GUSTING TO 20KTS AT KALB AND
18KTS AT KPOU.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. A COMPACT
STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY…TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY…BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TONIGHT.

AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TONIGHT…EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
INTO THE MVFR RANGE…ESP FOR VSBYS…AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER
05Z/SAT. THREW A PROB30 IN FOR IFR AS WELL. AT KGFL…THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION…IN THE FORM OF
SNOW…MAY REACH KGFL BEFORE MIDNIGHT…BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE
AS DRY AIR MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND.
SO…HAVE INDICATED PR0B30 FOR MVFR SN LIGHT SNOW AT KGFL.

ELSEWHERE…IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KALB AFTER 05Z/SAT…CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TOWARD
06Z/SAT. AT KPOU…THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS RAIN AROUND
05Z/SAT…BUT COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES…ESP AFTER 06Z/SAT.

OUTLOOK…
SAT…VFR. CHC SUB-VFR -RA/-SN…ESP AT KALB AND KPOU IN MORNING.
SAT NIGHT…VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN-SUN NIGHT…VFR. CHC SUB-VFR -SHRA.
MON-MON NIGHT…VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE…VFR/MVFR…CHC -SHRAS IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY. A STORM
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE RAIN OR EVEN SNOW TO THE REGION…MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY SHOULD BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT…AND
SATURDAY SHOULD BE 45 TO 55 PERCENT IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
BUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT IN SOUTHERN AREAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS…THEN VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH TO EAST AT 15
MPH OR LESS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

HINCKLEY RESERVOIR REMAINS ABOVE CAUTION STAGE…BUT LEVELS HAVE
CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A TENTH
TO MAYBE A QUARTER OF INCH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT SOME OF
THAT COULD FALL AS SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…NAS
NEAR TERM…HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM…NAS
LONG TERM…KL
AVIATION…KL
FIRE WEATHER…NAS
HYDROLOGY…NAS

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