March 29, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 292036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STORM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION AND WILL LIKELY BRING A LITTLE RAIN OR EVEN SNOW TO THE
REGION…MAINLY OF ALBANY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 400 PM…CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD THEIR GROUND OVER MOST OF THE
REGION…ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS EVIDENT IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

DRIER AIR WAS WORKING ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CLOUDS…AND
THIS DRY AIR COURTESY OF SUBSIDENCE…WILL BREAK THE CLOUDS UP FROM
NORTH TO WEST THIS EVENING…NOT COMPLETELY CLEARING OUR EASTERN
ZONES UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN MUCH…IN FACT IN MANY PLACES…THEY
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE RISE…WITH MOST VALLEY
PLACES REMAINING IN THE 40S…30S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THERE WERE STILL SPRINKLES OR EVEN FLURRIES SCATTERED ABOUT FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS THROUGH
ABOUT SUNDOWN…BUT AFTER THAT…THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT…IT WILL BE COLD AND BRISK WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE…20S MOST
PLACES…SOME TEENS NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THE DAY
WILL START WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LIGHTER WIND.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH AND EVEN MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD…UPPER 40S CAPITAL
REGION….40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS…BUT ONLY AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS…SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS…AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY…STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GET WITH A STORM CURRENTLY OVER THE
NATION/S HEARTLAND. THIS STORM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD…THEN TURN
EASTERLY AND RIDE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO SOUTH. THE 12Z NAM
HAS BACKED OFF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES…IMPLYING WEAKER FRONTOGENESIS. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. THE GFS IS NOW THE ODD MODEL OUT IN THAT IT KEEPS ALL THE QPF
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE NOW LEAN MORE WITH THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF…WHICH GIVES ABOUT A TENTH
OF AN INCH TO ALBANY…AND ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE SREFS ARE STILL A BIT HIGHER IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TO
THE NORTH OF ALBANY…WE STILL THINK LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL NORTH.

MODELS ALL INDICATE IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW…OR RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SINCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLUMN IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER…THE ECMWF STILL INDICATES LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WORKS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCES INTO SATURDAY…LINGERING SLIGHT POPS SOUTH OF ALBANY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN
SATURDAY AS WE GET THE NEAR APRIL SUN WORKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS
LIKELY TO WARM THE COLUMN UP ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN.

USING THE CARIBOU SNOW TOOL FROM THE NAM WE CAME UP WITH A COATING
TO UNDER AN INCH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY…1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS…AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE TACONICS. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MORE SNOW COULD FALL BUT FOR NOW…FOLLOWED HPC
THINKING AS WELL AS A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL 12Z NAM AND 12Z
ECMWF.

CLOUDS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS BACK IN. SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR 50 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY…40S
MOST OTHER PLACES.

SATURDAY EVENING LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION…WE CAPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THEM RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AND WE INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS. THERE MIGHT BE A
LITTLE SNOW OR SLEET UP IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD VERY
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM
THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE TIMING
OF THE POTENTIAL SHORT-WAVES TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES BE LOW CONFIDENCE AND WE TENDED TO FOLLOW A HPC/GFS/GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

CLOSING THE WEEKEND…A SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW IS MOVING S/SE
FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE DAY MAY BEGIN WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND…BUT WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE
COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND U50S IN THE VALLEYS…AND U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. AS THE
COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH…H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO -2C
TO -6C WITH LOWS IN THE M30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEYS…AND U20S TO
M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT…THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE HERE THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO…THE
GREAT LAKES REGION…AND THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH YIELD A BRIEF DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MON NIGHT…WHICH MAY
BRING SOME WARM ADVECTION RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY BEFORE 12Z TUE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S IN THE VALLEYS…AND U40S TO L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO L40S…WITH SOME SUBFREEZING
READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS…AND SRN GREENS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY…THE 12Z GFS TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
HPC/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE
MID WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES IN THE TROUGH…AS
THE GFS IS INDICATING A DOUBLE BARREL LOW WITH THE NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE SHEARING OUT OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO…BUT A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUE PM. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN LATE TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY THE GFS. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER COASTAL WAVE MAY FORM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
WITH SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. THE GFS WOULD HAVE THIS HAPPEN WEDNESDAY MORNING…WHEREAS
THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE IT OCCUR EARLY TUE EVENING. AGAIN…WE KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST INTO WEDNESDAY PM…WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS WED PM SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED ON TUE…AS THE FORECAST AREA COULD GET INTO A WARM
SECTOR…WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ON WED…AS THE COLD FRONT AND
WAVE PASS EAST OF THE REGION. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ON THE GFS ARE
AROUND 0C LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. WE DID NOT ADD THUNDER YET TO THE
FCST…THOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS IMPLIED LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SE QUEBEC
AND NEW ENGLAND WITH COOL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED…EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN…ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
U20S TO 30S WED NIGHT…WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEYS…AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
A COOL CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT…WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS…EXCEPT AT GFL WHERE SOME MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST A FEW
MORE HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LOW VFR BKN-OVC STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM KALB SOUTH TO
KPOU. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM ALOFT TO HELP BREAK UP
THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT…UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING…WHEN SOME CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE N/NW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS…EXCEPT LOCALLY
NE/E WINDS AT KGFL DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO DECREASE FROM THE N/NW TO LESS THAN 7 KTS OVERNIGHT…AND
INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK…
FRI…VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT…CIG. CHC SUB-VFR -RA/-SN…ESP AT KPOU.
SAT NIGHT…VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN-SUN NIGHT…VFR. CIG. CHC SUB-VFR -SHRA.
MON…VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE…VFR/MVFR…CHC -SHRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
…LOW RH 20-25 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON…
…HAINES INDEX TO 5 AND IN SOME LOCALITIES…6…

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND MIGHT BRING A LITTLE RAIN OR
EVEN SNOW TO REGION MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 75-90 PERCENT RANGE AS A
BREEZE WILL REMAIN UP IN MOST PLACES.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS…BELOW 30
PERCENT. HOWEVER…THE WIND SHOULD BE MODEST OUT OF NORTH OR
NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…AND
SOME OF THAT MIGHT LOOKS TO FALL AS SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

HINCKLEY RESERVOIR REMAINS ABOVE CAUTION STAGE…BUT LEVELS HAVE
CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WILL END THIS EVENING. DRY
FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A TENTH TO MAYBE A QUARTER OF
INCH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT SOME OF THAT COULD FALL AS SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM…WASULA
AVIATION…WASULA
FIRE WEATHER…HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY…NAS/HWJIV

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