March 22, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 222026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE MIDWEST SATURDAY… BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
AS OF 400 PM…MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE IN MOST PLACES…BUT THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK ZONES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH….BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PCPN IS EXPECTED. HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS…MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY…AND MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY…ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
MAINLY DRY SO HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S.

AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLOWLY
MOVES OUR WAY…CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY…WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST…THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD…
WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE MORE SPOTTY WITH THE PCPN. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES…LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE LOW OR MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT…WITH THE COLD
FRONT DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH…COULD END AS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

CORE OF COLDEST AIR TRACKS INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S…IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUN AND GOOD MIXING. IT COULD BE COLDER IF MORE
CLOUDS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S…LIKELY IMPACTING THE BUDS AND BLOOMS ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER SYSTEM TIMED TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY.

SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SYSTEM…WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS…POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS…AND HOW WARM OR COOL WE COULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY…STAY TUNED. JUST THE USUAL EARLY SPRING WEATHER ROLLER
COASTER WITH BIG SHIFTS IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON…AND BE SOUTH OF E-CNTRL NY BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
E-CNTRL NY TERMINALS AS HIGH CLOUDS…AND A LOW MID-LEVEL OR HIGH
STRATUS DECK WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT…AND PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
PATCHY MIST MAY DEVELOP NEAR KPOU…BUT WITH THE W/SW BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON…WE WERE NOT CONFIDENT TO GO WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS /OR LOWER/ YET.

THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE…AS IT LACKS ANY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH IT. THERE MAY BE ISOLD
SHOWERS…BUT THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH EVEN
TO ADD A VCSH BTWN 06Z-12Z.

THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE SCT-BKN IN THE LATE MORNING
WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT KPOU INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT…THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
N/NE AT 5 KTS OR LESS FROM KALB NORTH…WITH KPOU HAVING LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON…EXPECT N/NE
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK…
FRI PM-SAT AM…VFR…NO SIG WX.
SAT PM-SUN…VFR/HIGH MVFR…SLIGHT CHC-CHC -RA.
MON…VFR…NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER.

RH VALUES IN THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RECOVER TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION IN
MOST AREAS. A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT…BUT ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PECENT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW THE 25 MPH CRITERIA…GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT
5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THUS WE DO NOT
PLAN ON ISSUEING ANY STATEMENTS AND NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN IS NOT UNTIL SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

LINGERING SNOW MELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
OCCUR…WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN RIVERS/STREAMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HINCKLEY
ON THE WEST CANADA CREEK WHICH WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE ALERT STAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE USGS HAS CORRECTED THE PROBLEM WITH THE
GAGE THERE.

VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY…WITH POTENTIALLY A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
MARCH IS RUNNING OVER 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT ALBANY!

FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY

ALBANY NY: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

NOTE: THE MOST DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN IN A SINGLE
MONTH FOR ALBANY WAS 6 IN FEBRUARY 1981. MARCH 2012 HAS TIED THIS
RECORD WITH TUESDAYS RECORD HIGH. A RECORD HIGH MAX TEMP COULD
OCCUR TODAY EXTENDING THIS STREAK.

MARCH 8:
HIGH: 68 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 66 DEGREES 2000)
HI MEAN: 53.0 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 50.5 DEGREES 1942)

MARCH 12:
HIGH: 69 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1890)

MARCH 13:
HIGH: 70 DEGREES 2012 (TIED OLD RECORD: 1946)
HI MEAN: 57.5 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 53.5 DEGREES 1946)

MARCH 18:
HIGH: 69 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 65 DEGREES 1966)
HI MEAN: 57.0 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 55.5 DEGREES 1927)

MARCH 19:
HIGH: 78 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 75 DEGREES 1894)
HIGH MIN: 48 DEGREES 2012 (TIED OLD RECORD: 1983)
HI MEAN: 63.0 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 61.5 DEGREES 1894)

MARCH 20:
HIGH: 78 DEGREES (OLD RECORD: 74 DEGREES 1903)
HIGH MIN: 51 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 49 DEGREES 1903)
HI MEAN: 64.5 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 61.5 DEGREES 1903)

MARCH 21:
HIGH MIN: 56 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 46 DEGREES 1913)
HI MEAN: 66 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 58.5 DEGREES 1921)

MARCH 22:
HIGH: 80 DEGREES 1938 (FORECAST HIGH 80)
HI MIN: 44 DEGREES 1949 (FORECAST LOW 53)

GLENS FALLS NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944 FOR MARCH HOWEVER 1947
IS MISSING

MARCH 8: 65 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 59 DEGREES 2000)
MARCH 12: 66 DEGREES 2012 (TIED OLD RECORD: 1977)
MARCH 18: 71 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 64 DEGREES 2010)
MARCH 19: 76 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 2010)
MARCH 20: 79 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 2010)
MARCH 21: 78 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1946)

MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1946 (FORECAST HIGH 80 DEGREES)

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 8: 71 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1987)
MARCH 12: 72 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 65 DEGREES 1977)
MARCH 18: 73 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 72 DEGREES 2011)
MARCH 19: 79 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 70 DEGREES 2010)
MARCH 20: 77 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 74 DEGREES 1976)
MARCH 21: 72 DEGREES 2012 (OLD RECORD: 70 DEGREES 2010)

MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1979 (FORECAST HIGH 81)

MARCH 23: 69 DEGREES 1979 (FORECAST HIGH 76)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…NAS
AVIATION…WASULA
FIRE WEATHER…HWJIV
HYDROLOGY…GJM
CLIMATE…TAW/IAA

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