March 19, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 191034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER…A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION TODAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
AS OF 630 AM…PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA WITH SOME CLEAR SKIES STILL PRESENT FAR SOUTH.
TEMPS REMAINED VERY MILD WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA AS THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
CENTRAL VERMONT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND ZERO AND ML MUCAPES 500-1000
J/KG. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO VERY
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT…SO ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED…LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MODELED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN
INCH IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

ANY CONVECTION LINGERING THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH…ALTHOUGH
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF FA OVERNIGHT AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO DEPARTING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RISING AGAIN
AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
STRATUS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THU…MOST 00Z/19 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS INDICATE
WARM SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE N. TIMING OF FROPA AT THIS RANGE IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN…BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO OCCUR EITHER IN
THE AFTERNOON…OR EARLY AT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
REACH AT LEAST 75-80 ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY…AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT EVEN SOME 80-85 READINGS…ESP WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
REGION…ASSUMING SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS…AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE…ALTHOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE
LIMITED…SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS…TRENDING FROM N TO S FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME…BUT SHOULD MAX
TEMPS REACH 80 OR HIGHER IN SOME AREAS…THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

THU NT-FRI NT…COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
THU NT…WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THE AIR WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY…SETTING UP FOR A GENERALLY
SUNNY…BUT BREEZY DAY ON FRI…WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS…AND 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT MIN TEMPS THU NT/FRI AM TO FALL INTO THE
40S…EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND…WITH FRI NT/SAT AM
MINS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN VALLEYS…AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SAT-SUN…MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY…AND INTERACTION WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THE 00Z/19 ECMWF AND GEM BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT…AND LINGERING INTO SUN WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN…WHILE THE 00Z/GFS
TRACKS THIS SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH…AND ALSO MORE
DELAYED…WITH ANY SHOWERS HOLDING OFF IN OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS…WITH INCREASING CHC
FOR SHOWERS SAT…AND SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS INTO
SUNDAY…HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ASSUMING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIP…HAVE INDICATED MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
IN VALLEYS…AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER…SHOULD A STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OCCUR…MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY…PERHAPS ONLY
REACHING THE 40S. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
YET ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE TAF SITES…AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND PRODUCED A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON…POSSIBLY TRIGGERING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM…MAINLY WEST OF THE TAF SITES.

FOR KGFL…MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK…WHICH
MAY HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED IFR VSBYS. WE HAVE INDICATED A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN
08Z-10Z FOR POSSIBLE IFR…OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE…THEN VFR THEREAFTER. MVFR/IFR VSBYS
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR KALB…A LIGHT S/SE WIND MAY LIMIT FOG AND/OR STRATUS
POTENTIAL. HAVE INDICATED A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS CLOSE TO
SUNRISE…OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER…SHOULD THE WINDS BECOME CALM PRIOR TO OR AROUND
SUNRISE…THEN A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS/CIGS COULD DEVELOP. MVFR/IFR
VSBYS WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR KPOU…GENERALLY MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.
HOWEVER…GIVEN A CROSSOVER TEMP OF 49…AND A POTENTIAL MIN TEMP
AROUND SUNRISE OF 44-45…CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS.
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z-11Z DUE TO THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE…VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING…BEFORE ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS BECOME POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL…IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE…ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON…BUT BEST CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MENTION
OF VCSH AT KGFL AND KALB…WHERE POSSIBILITY FOR THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN KPOU. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL…BUT THE CHANCE OF ONE IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES LOOKS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE…HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SE TO S THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT LESS THAN 5 KT AT KGFL AND KPOU…AND 5-10 KT AT KALB.
THEN…EXPECT S/SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT TODAY…BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE MON NT.

OUTLOOK…
MON NT-TUE…VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRAS.
TUE NIGHT-WED NT…VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI…VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRAS THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER…A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION TODAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO VERY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT…SO ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED…LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MODELED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN
INCH IN MANY AREAS.

LINGERING SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
OCCUR…WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR…WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS
SOME NORTHERN RIVERS/STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
RECORD HIGHS
ALBANY NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
MARCH 19: 75 DEGREES 1894
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1903
MARCH 21: 78 DEGREES 1921
MARCH 22: 80 DEGREES 1938
NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: UPPER 20S

GLENS FALLS NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 19: 67 DEGREES 2010 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 20: 68 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 21: 68 DEGREES 1946
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1946
NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: LOWER 20S

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 19: 70 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1976
MARCH 21: 70 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1979
NORMAL HIGH: UPPER 40S LOW: MID 20S

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA/11
NEAR TERM…IAA/11
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…KL
AVIATION…KL
FIRE WEATHER…IAA/11
HYDROLOGY…IAA/11
CLIMATE…

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