March 19, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 192120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
515 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE…NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT…WILL CONTINUE
TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES FEELING MORE
LIKE EARLY JUNE THAN MID MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
AS OF 430PM…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. THESE ARE TIED INTO A MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A DEWPOINT
LINE…(WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE). SO
FAR…THEY HAVE BEEN TERRAIN ORIENTED. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
MESO-SCALE MODEL DOES TRY TO BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY OFF THE CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS BUT THEN THEY DISSIPATE AFTER
THE HEATING OF THE DAY. WE WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND (NOT EXACTLY) AND
HAVE COVERAGE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER (SCAT/ISOLATED) THROUGH 22Z
THEN CALL IT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE…BEFORE ENDING LATER IN THE
EVENING.

SO FAR…SHOWERS AND ANY STORM HAVE BEEN LOW-TOPPED…PULSE IN
NATURE…WITH 50DBZ GENERALLY LOWER THAN 16,000. A FEW OF THESE
COULD PRODUCED VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CLOSE TO AN INCH…BUT
FOR THE MOST PART…WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE REGION. THERE IS
ALMOST NO CHANCE OF ANY OF THESE COMING STRONG LET ALONG SEVERE.

ONCE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE…WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A MILD
ALMOST MUGGY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY
STRATUS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER MOST OF THE REGION…ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
MORE IS POSSIBLE DOWN TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. THERE WILL BE OTHER PATCH
CLOUDS…THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALONG WITH SOME HAZE. WE
ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD BE ESPECIALLY
DENSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATER UPDATES MIGHT HAVE TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE AND OR
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS ACTUALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT NOW LOOKS AS IF ANY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COME TUESDAY SHOULD STAY
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER AROUND
+10C ON TUESDAY THEREFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE TODAY. THEREFORE MOST PLACES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. ON WEDNESDAY…AS THE HIGH STRAIGHTENS…H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK
WARM A POINT OR SO…SO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK EVEN
HIGHER…APPROACHING 80 IN MANY SPOTS. THURSDAY MIGHT BE THE WARMEST
DAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. COMPRESSION
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MIGHT SEND TEMPERATURES AIMING WELL INTO THE
80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD…80 TO THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT….MID OR UPPER 70S NORTH.

THESE VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH OR EVEN BREAK RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR ALL THESE DATES. MORE ABOUT THIS CAN BE FOUND IN OUR CLIMATE
SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
THE 12 UTC GFS SHOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY…SO NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER…TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS COMPARED
TO THURSDAY/S WARMTH…WITH ONLY MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THIS BIG COOLDOWN…IT WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION…A
LESS HUMID NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL BLOW THROUGH THE AREA…WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. AT THIS TIME…THE 12 UTC ECMWF SHOWS
THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND…SO IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT THE VERY WARM TEMPS COULD CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY. FOR
NOW…WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS…BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

A LARGE CUTOFF WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE. WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BRING THIS CUTOFF TOWARDS OUR
AREA…THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THIS STORM GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW…WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA…WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING RAIN SHOWERS
BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN EVE. THERE/S EVEN A CHANCE THAT THE RAIN
SHOWERS COULD END AS SOME WET SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOME COOLER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP…MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR VALLEY AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S…WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR NOW…WILL GO WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR MONDAY…WITH TEMPS
CONTINUED TO ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER…THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF
THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE CUTOFF STORM…WHICH WILL TAKE A FEW MORE
DAYS TO BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
MAINLY THE KALB/KGFL SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING…BUT THE THREAT IS
LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE…IT WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT…AREAS OF
MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP…ESPECIALLY AFTER
08Z/TUE.

THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH UNDER 10KTS THROUGH
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK…
TUE-WED NT…VFR. CHC OF SUB-VFR FOG EACH MORNING. .
THU-FRI…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE…HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY.

A FULL RECOVER IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS (AS RH
VALUES LOOK REACH OVER 90 PERCENT). RH VALUES THEN LOOK TO DROP
TO THE MODERATE LEVEL EACH AFTERNOON (30-50 PERCENT). THE WIND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH.

HOWEVER…COME FRIDAY…AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH…IT PASSAGE LOOKS COMPLETELY DRY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO
STIR UP THE WIND AND COULD POTENTIALLY DROP RH VALUES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO BELOW 30 PERCENT IN MANY PLACES. A BREEZE WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND COULD GUST PAST 25 MPH AT TIMES LATER
IN THE DAY. AT THE VERY LEAST…WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE SOME
SORT OF HEADLINE FOR THAT DATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FRIDAY
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS…MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT…SO
ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIMITED…LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
MODELED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH IN MANY AREAS.

LINGERING SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
OCCUR…WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MAINLY MINOR…WITHIN BANK RISES
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN RIVERS/STREAMS.

OTHERWISE…AFTER MONDAY EVENING…DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…

AS YOU CAN SEE…WE ARE PROJECTING QUITE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…SOME OF WHICH COULD REALLY
BE SHATTERED.

RECORD HIGHS
ALBANY NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1903 (FORECASTING A HIGH OF 77)
MARCH 21: 78 DEGREES 1921 (FORECASTING A HIGH OF 78)
MARCH 22: 80 DEGREES 1938 (FORECASTING A HIGH OF 80)
NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: UPPER 20S

GLENS FALLS NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 20: 68 DEGREES 2010 (FORECASTING A HIGH OF 76)
MARCH 21: 68 DEGREES 1946 (FORECASTING A HIGH OF 77)
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1946 (FORECASTING A HIGH OF 77)
NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: LOWER 20S

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1976 (FORECASTING A HIGH OF 78)
MARCH 21: 70 DEGREES 2010 (FORECASTING A HIGH OF 79)
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1979 (FORECASTING A HIGH OF 83)
NORMAL HIGH: UPPER 40S LOW: MID 20S

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…FRUGIS
AVIATION…IAA
FIRE WEATHER…HWJIV
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV
CLIMATE…IAA/HWJIV

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