March 13, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 131734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON…AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING A BRIEF COOL DOWN…BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 1000 AM…PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 430 AM…STILL FOLLOWING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
REGION…WITH SOME OF THE CELLS GETTING BRIEFLY A LITTLE HEAVIER.
RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATED UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN MIGHT
HAVE FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO NORTHERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY WITH OTHER AREAS LESS THAN THAT.

THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OF SHOWERS…AS THE ENHANCED CLOUDS
AND DEEPEST WATER VAPOR HAVE SHIFT. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY STEADILY MARCH EAST OFF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DIMINISHED A LITTLE WITH THIS LINE.

THIS LINE APPEARS TO MOVING NORTHEAST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR REGION. WE THINK SO…AND THIS
LINE WILL BE AIDED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO REACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING…AND REACH THE GREATER
CAPITAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON…AND SWEEP THROUGH OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE BEST FORCING WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES…TIED IN WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A MODEST 60KT H250 MB JET.
HOWEVER…THE BEST INSTABILITY…POTENTIALLY OVER 500 J/KG LOOKS TO
BE SOUTH. WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT AND EVEN CHANCE THUNDERSTORM IN
THE GRIDS TIE INTO THIS POTENTIAL BROKEN LINE.

THERE IS EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO CELLS COULD CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER…THE THREAT IS VERY
LOW (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) AND THEREFORE WE WILL NOT PLACE ANY
THREAT IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL MENTION IT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO).

THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO CLEAR OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEEP IN MIND THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED WHICH MEANS MANY
SPOTS MIGHT ACTUALLY MISS RAIN ALL TOGETHER.

PHENOMENALLY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN. THE NWS MESOMET
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MOST PLACES HAVE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 50S…WITH A FEW SPOTS DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.

UPSTREAM HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID
60S. HOWEVER…WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW…WE BELIEVE
DOWNSLOPING MIGHT LEAD TO GOOD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER THIS
MORNING AND MIDDAY. IF THAT HAPPENS…GIVEN H850 TEMPERATURES STILL
AROUND +7C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT…WE BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS FROM ALBANY SOUTHEASTWARD.
WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MET/MAV BLEND FOR THIS REASON.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ADIRONDACK PARK (WHERE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH FIRST ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS). HOWEVER…THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY…WHILE WE APPROACH 70 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION AND EVEN HIGHER INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MID 70S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/…
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE LOW
TONIGHT WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 30S AND 40S…AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT…WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 45
DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK…50S MOST OTHER PLACES…BUT LOWER
60S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER…THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING OUT OF CANADA MIGHT BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION SHOULD
BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GET DOWN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS…GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIP EAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW FORM A WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH AT ALL COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH THIS LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE BEGIN THIS PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS THE COMBINATION
OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT. THE BEST CONVERGENCE…AT THIS TIME…SEEMS TO BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS. SHOWALTER INDEX VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C AND
WE WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

THEREAFTER…A RATHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. THIS PATTERN REFLECTS THAT OF LATE SPRING OR EARLY
SUMMER WITH EXPECTED 500MB HEIGHT VALUES AT OR GREAT THAN 576DM ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND PERHAPS MORE RECORDS ATTAINED /RECORD HIGH NEXT MONDAY IS 75F/.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PRECIPITATION AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
CLEAR POCKET FILLING IN AT KPOU ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NARROW BAND OF SCT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD KALB ALONG
A COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KALB UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. SCT
SHOWERS MAY POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT…TOO…DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON…SO HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR KPOU FROM 20Z TO
00Z. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY…A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
THERE…TOO…PARTICULARLY IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME…BUT FEELING
NOW IS THAT IT LIKELY WON/T MATERIALIZE. VFR ALL THE WAY THROUGH
EXCEPT PERHAPS MVFR FOR THE EARLY TEMPO PERIOD AT KPOU.

NO SHEAR ISSUES WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS…MAINLY
AT KALB…THOUGH NOT TERRIBLY STRONG. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP
WITH GUSTS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AT KALB AS WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE FOCUSED
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. AT KGFL AND KPOU…WINDS SHOULD BECOME
WESTERLY ONLY AROUND 8 KNOTS WITH A MORE TERRAIN-OBSTRUCTED FLOW.

OUTLOOK…
WED AFTN-THU NGT…VFR…NO SIG WX.
FRI-SAT…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS LOOKS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE
FORENOON…CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT MIDDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS INCLUDING THE
BERKSHIRES…NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE
LATER AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS LINE LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

OTHERWISE…NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

HOWEVER…ON WEDNESDAY…A BREEZE WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST 10
TO 20 MPH…WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20S. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
CONNECTICUT. RIGHT NOW…THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
BELOW THOSE NEEDED FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BUT IT WILL CLOSE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN THIS AREA (IF ANY) RECEIVES LATER TODAY.

NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…

NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD PRODUCE RIVER BASIN AVERAGES BELOW A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER…WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SNOW
MELT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE…STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIURNAL WELL WITHIN BANK RISES.

COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SLOW ANY RUNOFF DOWN AND IT WILL BE
DRY. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY…AND RUNOFF WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES…ESPECIALLY WHERE A SNOW PACK
REMAINS.

THE SAME GOES FOR THURSDAY AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WARMER WEATHER WILL ACCELERATE THE SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. HOWEVER…NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMUP.

THE MMEFS INDICATE NO RIVER GAGE ACROSS OUR REGION REACHING EVEN
ACTION STAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE…
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY

ALBANY NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

70 DEGREES 1946 (PROJECT HIGH TODAY IS NOW 70 DEGREES)

LAST TIME WE HIT 70 DEGREES WAS OCTOBER 20TH OF LAST YEAR.

NORMAL HIGH IS 43 DEGREES AND LOW 24 DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: 71 DEGREES 1990 (PROJECTED HIGH TODAY 65 DEGREES)

NORMAL HIGH IS 41 DEGREES AND LOW 19 DEGREES

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949

MARCH 13: 82 DEGREES 1990 (PROJECTED HIGH TODAY 74 DEGREES)

NORMAL HIGH IS 47 DEGREES AND LOW 24 DEGREES

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM…GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…BGM
AVIATION…ELH
FIRE WEATHER…HWJIV
HYDROLOGY…IAA/HWJIV
CLIMATE…IAA/HWJIV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

&&

.CLIMATE…
RECORD HIGHS
ALBANY NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
MARCH 12: 67 DEGREES 1890
THE HIGH TODAY 69 DEGREES (AT 2:45 PM EDT)

MARCH 13: 70 DEGREES 1946
(PROJECT HIGH TUESDAY 67 DEGREES) NORMAL HIGH IS 43 DEGREES AND
LOW 24 DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 MARCH 12: 66 DEGREES
1977 TIED AT 66 DEGREES AS OF 5 PM

MARCH 13: 71 DEGREES 1990 (PROJECTED HIGH TUESDAY 66 DEGREES)
NORMAL HIGH IS 41 DEGREES AND LOW 19 DEGREES

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 12: 65 DEGREES 1977
THE HIGH SO TODAY 72 DEGREES AS OF 5 PM

MARCH 13: 82 DEGREES 1990 (PROJECTED HIGH TUESDAY 72 DEGREES)
NORMAL HIGH IS 47 DEGREES AND LOW 24 DEGREES

&&

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