March 11, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 112246
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 PM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE AN EARLY APPEARANCE IN
2012…BEING ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND AT NEAR
RECORD LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MID WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS FOR A DAY OR SO. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL RETURN TO END THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/…
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS MADE WITH 7PM EDT UPDATE…AS CURRENT
TEMPS ARE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE GRIDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE.

THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN
SOME TONIGHT…WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVERHEAD. WILL BE A
PLEASANT EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WEAKENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 30S WITH 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

RECORD HIGHS
ALBANY NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
MARCH 12: 67 DEGREES 1890
MARCH 13: 70 DEGREES 1946
NORMAL HIGH IS 43 DEGREES AND LOW 24 DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 12: 66 DEGREES 1977
MARCH 13: 71 DEGREES 1990
NORMAL HIGH IS 41 DEGREES AND LOW 19 DEGREES

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 12: 65 DEGREES 1977
MARCH 13: 82 DEGREES 1990
NORMAL HIGH IS 47 DEGREES AND LOW 24 DEGREES

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RETREAT OUT TO SEA AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. OUR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL AN INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
SYSTEM`S ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY INTERACT WITH THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TUESDAY THEN MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM PRECIPITATION
IS MODELED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH BRINGING A COOLER AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAY…REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/…
WARM WEATHER…WELL ABOVE NORMAL…CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA…BUT THE
CURRENT UPPER SYSTEM ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE…DESCRIBED
IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER…THE UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
OFF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY…WITH A RELATIVELY CONFINED REGION OF COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SKIRTING THROUGH NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME MINOR COOLING FOR AREAS
OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT JUST A
LITTLE BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY…BUT NOT MUCH.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN EVEN STRONGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER…THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME
UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITHOUT A GOOD CONSENSUS ON TIMING OR
STRENGTH OF UPPER FEATURES AND DYNAMICS…CAPPING SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO ISOLATED UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCES OR HIGHER AS WE
GET NEARER TO NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD…WITH LOWS IN THE 40S IN MANY AREAS…SOME 30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WHATEVER SNOW EXISTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD HAVE
QUITE A PERIOD OF MELTING THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FROM CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10
KTS…BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK…
MON NIGHT-TUE…MAINLY VFR. CHC SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT-FRI…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. DIURNAL SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW MELT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…SNYDER
NEAR TERM…SNYDER/IAA
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…NAS
AVIATION…SNYDER
HYDROLOGY…IAA

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