March 7, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 071820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 PM EST WED MAR 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE AND SEND A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MUCH
MILDER AIR OUR WAY TODAY. THIS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY…BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND BEHIND IT…A RETURN TO
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 1240 PM…MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR SOME AREAS. MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE…AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BOTH HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
AND THROUGH THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY
IN SOME AREAS PARTICULARLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/…
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE TRICKY TO
FORECAST DEPENDENT MOSTLY ON WHETHER AREAS DECOUPLE OR NOT. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE SNOWFALL LINGERS
(NOT AS COMMON AFTER TODAY) WILL SEE THE COLDEST READINGS AROUND
30…WHILE AREAS LIKE THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOME OF THE
HILLTOPS WILL BE AROUND 40 DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY BREEZE 5
TO 10 MPH.

THE MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER…A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PRESS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL PUT A BRIEF END TO THIS WARM-UP BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER DAY
WITH EVEN HIGHER READINGS. IN FACT…EVEN WITH MORE CLOUDS THURSDAY
THEN WEDNESDAY…COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT…ALLOWING FOR
MIXING OF H850 AIR RANGING FROM +6C TO +9C FROM ABOUT THE 5000 FOOT
LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 60S FROM THE GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST…EVEN
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON…READINGS SHOULD
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S. OUR RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY IS 66 DEGREES ON
MARCH 8TH SET BACK IN 2000. WE LOOK TO COME VERY CLOSE TO THE RECORD
AS OF NOW WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH 64 DEGREES ON THURSDAY IN
ALBANY. THE LAST TIME WE REACHED 60 OFFICIALLY AT ALBANY WAS
NOVEMBER 30 OF LAST YEAR.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED WITH WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 20,000 FEET AS IT SLIDES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY. THIS IS TERMED AN ANA-FRONT
AND USUALLY THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TYPES OF FRONT ARE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS
FRONT. THERE IS NOT MUCH HAPPENING WITH IT NOW…BUT AS SURGE OF
PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH IT ON THURSDAY…RAIN
SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE…ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY…BY LATER THURSDAY.

THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR MIGHT ACTUALLY MEAN A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW IN
NORTHWESTERN ZONES…AND THAT MIGHT ACCUMULATE UP TO 1-3 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE NO SNOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND WEST…30S MOST OTHER PLACES BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY WILL BE BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ANY LINGER SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST WILL END EARLY. HOWEVER…THE FLOW WILL TURN COLD AND
WESTERLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LAKE RESPONSE OFF ONTARIO. MORE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THIS LAKE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
EVERYWHERE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY…40S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD…PRETTY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL VALUES. A NORTHWEST WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW LONG THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT…EXPECT SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION LATE AT NIGHT. IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -13
TO -19 C RANGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS NORTH TO LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER FA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF FA BY
SUNDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT…LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO DROP SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE…LOWER AND THICKEN SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING WITH THE BIG QUESTION BEING HOW FAR SOUTH
DOES THE BACKDOOR GET BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT AND
DOES THE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
ON THE FA OR LIFT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF FA INTO CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS
WOULD FAVOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR
NOW WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE
FA WITH CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA ON TUESDAY
WHICH WOULD BE CLOSER TO GFS TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z/THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THAT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WILL BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. AT KALB THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK…
THU NIGHT-FRI…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN…VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A STRONG ANA-TYPE COLD FRONT. (A FRONT THAT LINES UP
WITH THE MEAN FLOW). MUCH OF THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN…BUT AS COLD AIR FILTERS BACK…A CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FROM THIS BOUNDARY NOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE
CLOSE TO AN INCH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS…A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
IN MOST OTHER PLACES.

TODAY INTO THURSDAY…TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S MOST
PLACES TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN SOME
SNOWMELT AND SOME MINOR RUNOFF. THE SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. DESPITE AN
LITTLE INCREASE IN ANTICIPATED QPF ONLY WELL WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED…WITH THE NWS/RFC EXPERIMENTAL SHORT-TERM HYDROLOGICAL
ENSEMBLES (MMEFS) STILL INDICATING NO RIVERS OR STREAMS IN OUR HSA
LIKELY TO REACH ACTION STAGE LEVELS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS BY FRIDAY…SLOWING DOWN ANY RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…IAA/HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV/BGM/NAS
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…IAA
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/NAS

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