Sunday March 4, 2012

000
FXUS61 KALY 041743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH WHILE AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA AND BRING COLDER AIR TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY…WITH NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/…
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION…AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOWING A VERY CELLULAR LOOK. SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY
HAS SPREAD TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SO FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES NEEDED IF ANY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENT FORECAST…AND GIVEN A FEW
MORE HOURS OF MIXING WITH A FEW BREAK IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE…FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES NEEDED IF ANY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…
TONIGHT…THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY…AND THE SHEAR ONCE
AGAIN BECOME MINIMAL. THEREFORE THERE WILL LIKELY BE MULTIPLE BANDS
OF LAKE ONTARIO WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK…POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

ALSO…THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. MOISTURE FROM
THIS FLOW LOOKS LIMITED AS IT HITS THE UPSLOPE OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES…THEREFORE FOR NOW…ONLY CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES THERE…MAINLY THIS EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA…INCLUDING ALL OF THE HUDSON LOOKS
PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A VARIABLE CLOUDY SKY.

ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE
ENHANCED ACTIVITY WOULD BE A COATING TO AT MOST LOCALLY TWO INCHES.

OTHERWISE…COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE INTO THE REGION VIA GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH…DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
DEEP FREEZE…DOWN TO THE TEENS LOCALLY…AROUND 20 FAR SOUTHERN
REGION…BUT SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE SNOW COVERED
ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO THE CHILL.

INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH MONDAY…BUT DEEPER COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPERATURES OFF THE 00Z NAM DROVE H850 TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C
OVER ALBANY…SLIGHTLY COLDER NORTH! THE H850 TEMPS OFF THE 00Z GFS
WAS ABOUT -14C LOCALLY. EITHER WAY…WITH THE NORTHWEST
WIND…DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE…TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESS
TO RECOVER PAST THE FREEZING MARK FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD…IN
FACT…THEY WILL BE HELD TO THE 20S (OR EVEN SOME TEENS) WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY…MAKING INTO THE MID…MAYBE UPPER 30S DOWN
TOWARD POU. THE LAST SUB-FREEZING HIGH IN ALBANY WAS OFFICIALLY WAY
BACK ON FEBRUARY 12TH. WE PROJECTING A HIGH OF ONLY 30 IN ALBANY
THAT DAY BUT AT TIMES…IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THAT…GIVEN
THE BRISK NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT…AND A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY AND SLACKENING WIND…TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PLUMMET. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH IF ANY OF A SNOW PACK WE WILL HAVE LEFT.
THOSE AREAS WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS GONE CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WELL DOWN IN THE TEENS. MEANWHILE…SNOW COVERED AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES SINKING TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IN FACT…MUCH OF
THE ADIRONDACK LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO!

AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIP TO OUR EAST…THE COMBINATION OF
MORE SUNSHINE AND AN EVENTUALLY A SOUTHERLY BREEZE…WILL HELP COAST
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 30S MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON…EXCEPT SOME
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE COLDEST DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TO START AND
END THE LONG TERM PERIOD…WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT…A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. THE HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S…AND THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS AGREE UP TO THIS POINT AND EVEN AGREE THAT THE
FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER…
BEYOND THAT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. THE GFS SLOWLY
SLIDES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY…THEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA BY LATE FRIDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THURSDAY…BUT
THEN IT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
IT…WHICH BRINGS WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY…WITH
UNSETTLED SHOWERY TYPE PCPN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT
THE ECMWF ALSO HAS THE NEXT LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND.

DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING…DID NOT FORECAST POPS ANY HIGHER
THAN CHANCE DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL
MILD AT FIRST WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 ON THURSDAY. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40…HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AROUND 20 OVER THE ADIRONDACKS…TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING…WITH FLURRIES AND
VIRGA SCATTERED ABOUT THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. WILL MENTION
VCSH FOR POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRIES…BUT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL REMAIN LOW. ALSO WILL MENTION VFR AS
PREDOMINANT CONDITION THROUGH THE PERIOD…WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER DOES MOVE ACROSS ONE OF
THE TERMINALS. MAINLY BKN DECK OF STRATOCU SHOULD LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WHILE CHANCES FOR FLURRIES DIMINISHES.
STRATOCU SHOULD TEND TO SCOUR OUT TO A MAINLY SCT DECK ON MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 7-11 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST-NORTHWEST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

APPENDED AMD NOT SKED TO KGFL TAF DUE TO COMMS PROBLEMS.

OUTLOOK…
MON…VFR. BREEZY.
MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT…VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI…VFR/MVFR…CHC -SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE
GAGES. IN FACT…ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND SOUTHERN
GREENS…WITH ANY RUNOFF CEASING…LEVELS MIGHT ACTUAL RECEDE A
LITTLE. TO THE SOUTH…SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES WILL TAKE PLACE
DUE TO SNOW MELT THROUGH TODAY…BUT EVEN HERE TOO ANY RUNOFF SHOULD
SLOW DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE DRY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. SNOW MELT WILL INCREASE LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A RESULT BUT DOES NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN MODEST INCREASE IN FLOW RATES AND RIVER LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…NAS/JPV
NEAR TERM…NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM…GJM
AVIATION…JPV
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/NAS

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