March 1, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 012125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY THIS EVENING…BRINGING THE SNOW TO AN
END. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING…BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY AS A
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING…BRINGING A WINTRY
MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED…AS A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH USHERING IN COLDER AIR
SATURDAY NIGHT. A RELATIVELY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 420 PM…MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON…AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH. SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING WITH
SOME 1-2" AMOUNTS…MAINLY ON ALREADY SNOW-COVERED SURFACES. ONCE
THE SUN SETS…SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ROADS TOO. WILL
ALLOW WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM…AS SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO START WINDING DOWN AND ONLY VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE EVENING…SO WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THESE AREAS…BUT A DRYING TREND SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR…BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A DEVELOPING INVERSION.
WILL GO ABOVE SLIGHT ABOVE BOTH MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS BASED
ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AROUND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE AS A POWERFUL CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID WEST.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL WARM DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW…HOWEVER WARMING MAY NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED TO
DUE FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA PLUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER PREVALENT. THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING SOUTH OF ALBANY AROUND MID-DAY. HOWEVER…CLOUD WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL INTENSIFY TO AROUND 980 MB BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY…WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH GFS
SHOWING ROUGHLY 40-50 KT AT 850MB…WHILE NAM IS STRONGER WITH 50-60
KT. EITHER WAY…THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 295K SURFACE AND ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WITH HIGHER QPF VALUES IN THESE AREAS.

TEMP FORECAST IS CRITICAL WITH PRECIP ARRIVING FRIDAY EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW/RAIN MIX IN MANY AREAS TO START. VALLEY
LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD MAY BE ABOVE FREEZING
THOUGH…SO PLAIN RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY IN THESE LOCATIONS. AS A
WARM LAYER QUICKLY MOVES IN TOWARD MIDNIGHT…PTYPE REGIME OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
SCENARIO…EXCEPT SOME SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
PRELIMINARY THINKING IS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW MAY OCCUR…WITH
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IN SOME SPOTS…MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
WILL BE LOCKED IN LONGER. WE WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS…AND WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO.

WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT…WILL MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF WIND
ADVISORIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE IF WINDS CAN MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY IS A NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR STRONG SURFACE WIND FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE. ALSO IF WINDS
END UP BEING MORE SOUTHEAST THAN SOUTH…THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES WOULD BE FAVORED. WILL ALSO MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST BELOW ZERO.

ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
STRONG CYCLONE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WARMER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BUT WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING. THE
TRUE WARM SECTOR AIR MAY ONLY MAKE IT TO A LIMITED AREA FROM THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD TO LITCHFIELD CT…WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S MAY
BE ATTAINABLE. WILL MENTION GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
SOME SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR…BUT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND
0.25-0.50" FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

ALL OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CANADIAN LOW TO PUSH THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DRYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY…ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD…A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DROP 850 HPA TEMPS DOWN AS
LOW AS -13 TO -16 DEGREES C ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH A W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES…THERE
WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY…ESP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WESTERN DACKS…AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. WHILE TEMPS WON/T BE TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY…THE COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW FOR A COUPLE BELOW NORMAL DAYS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
VALLEY AREAS WILL ONLY HAVE MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ON MON/TUE…WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS…AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THIS BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE SHORT-LIVED. A LARGE EXPANSIVE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITHIN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE…WHICH WILL END ANY LAKE RESPONSE. A LARGE RIDGE AT 500
HPA ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL BUILD EASTWARD FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY…WITH MAX TEMPS IN
VALLEY AREAS WELL INTO THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY…AND 50S FOR
THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER…BUT THE STRONG RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP ANY
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE NORTH OF OUR AREA…ALLOWING THE DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER TO CONTINUE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE BACK EDGE IS IN CENTRAL NY BUT THERE
IS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA OF SNOW
AS THE AREA TRACKS EAST. THIS MAKES TIMING THE END OF THE SNOW
DIFFICULT BUT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN DATA AND GUIDANCE…SNOW
SHOULD END AROUND 00Z AT KALB AND KGFL. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT KPOU THROUGH ABOUT
22Z. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS…A FEW HOURS OF VCSH SHOULD
OCCUR. AS THE SNOW IS FALLING…IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR…WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. ONCE THE SNOW ENDS…MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT…WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD BECOME VFR.
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE TOMORROW MORNING AFTER ABOUT
14Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST…AT 5 KT OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 5 KT TONIGHT. THEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5
KT OR LESS TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK…
FRI…VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT…SUB-VFR CIG. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SAT NIGHT-SUN…VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT…VFR. CIG. SCHC IFR -SHSN.
MON/TUE…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS. SOME HYDRO GAGES ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY ICE FROM THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME PROBLEMS
MAY ARISE ON THE WEEKEND.

A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY WITH TOTAL QPF AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A LARGE
PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW AND SLEET…MIXING
WITH SOME RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET HAVE FALLEN FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION…SO NOT MUCH RIVER RESPONSE IS ANTICIPATED
EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR RISES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME OF
THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN AND THERE WILL SLIGHT
RUNOFF.

DRY WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON FRIDAY…BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS A ROUND OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH PLAIN RAIN ON SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT SNOW MELT
AS TEMPERATURES SOAR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S AND 50S COUPLED
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 40S.

WE WILL MENTION IN THE HWO…THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING WITH AT
LEAST MINIMUM SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS WITH SNOW
MELT COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
LEAST SNOWIEST SEASONS FOR ALBANY NY
YEARS OF RECORD: 1884-2012
1) 13.8 INCHES 1912-13
2) 19.0 INCHES 1988-89
3) 22.8 INCHES 2011-12 (THROUGH 1 PM MARCH 1ST)
4) 24.8 INCHES 1929-30
5) 26.7 INCHES 1918-19
6) 27.4 INCHES 1979-80
7) 28.1 INCHES 1889-90
8) 28.4 INCHES 1936-37
9) 28.7 INCHES 1990-91
28.7 INCHES 1914-15

ALBANY: DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2012

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 31.5 DEGREES / 5.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THIS PUT US IN THE TOP 10 WARMEST

TOP 10 WARMEST - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
1) 32.7 DEGREES 1931-32
2) 32.3 DEGREES 2001-02
3) 32.2 DEGREES 1889-90
4) 32.1 DEGREES 1881-82
5) 31.9 DEGREES 1936-37
6) 31.8 DEGREES 1827-28
31.8 DEGREES 1932-33
8) 31.5 DEGREES 2011-12
9) 30.4 DEGREES 1858-59
30.4 DEGREES 1818-19

SNOWFALL: 12.8 INCHES / 30.9 INCHES BELOW NORMAL

LEAST SNOWIEST DEC-JAN-FEB
YEARS OF RECORD: 1884-2012
1) 10.9 INCHES 1936-37
2) 11.7 INCHES 1912-13
3) 12.8 INCHES 2011-12
4) 13.8 INCHES 1911-12
5) 14.2 INCHES 1988-89
6) 16.3 INCHES 1931-32
7) 16.6 INCHES 1979-80
8) 17.0 INCHES 1954-55
9) 17.1 INCHES 1918-19
17.1 INCHES 1889-90

FEBRUARY 2012 STATS…

ALBANY NY:

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 32.1 DEGREES / 6.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION: 1.00 INCHES / 1.20 INCHES BELOW NORMAL
SNOWFALL: 4.6 INCHES / 7.8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL

FEBRUARY 2012 DID MAKE IT INTO TOP 10 WARMEST ON RECORD.

TOP 10 WARMEST - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
1) 35.2 DEGREES 1828
2) 33.5 DEGREES 1834
3) 33.1 DEGREES 1981
4) 32.4 DEGREES 1984
5) 32.3 DEGREES 1884
6) 32.2 DEGREES 1842
7) 32.1 DEGREES 1840
32.1 DEGREES 1859
32.1 DEGREES 2012
10) 32.0 DEGREES 1857

AS FOR SNOWFALL…THE 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON FEBRUARY 29TH THE LEAP DAY
PUSHED US OUT OF THE TOP 10 LEAST SNOWIEST FEBRUARIES RECORD WITH A
TOTAL OF 4.6 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

THE 4.0 INCHES OF SNOW ON FEBRUARY 29TH IS A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE.
THE OLD RECORD WAS 0.8 INCHES SET BACK IN 2008.

TOP 10 LEAST SNOWIEST - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1885
1) 1.3 INCHES 1912
2) 1.7 INCHES 1937
3) 1.8 INCHES 1968
4) 1.9 INCHES 1941
5) 2.4 INCHES 1886
6) 2.5 INCHES 2009
7) 2.7 INCHES 1957
8) 2.8 INCHES 1987
9) 3.2 INCHES 1918
10) 3.4 INCHES 2002

GLENS FALLS NY:

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 28.8 DEGREES / 7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION: 0.51 INCHES / 1.57 INCHES BELOW NORMAL

TOP 10 WARMEST - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1945
1) 32.2 DEGREES 1981
2) 30.6 DEGREES 1984
3) 29.0 DEGREES 1954
4) 28.8 DEGREES 1998
28.8 DEGREES 2012
6) 27.5 DEGREES 1991
27.5 DEGREES 2002
8) 27.4 DEGREES 1953
9) 27.3 DEGREES 1957
10) 27.1 DEGREES 1960

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 35.4 DEGREES / 6.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION: 1.47 INCHES / 1.19 INCHES BELOW NORMAL

TOP 10 WARMEST - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
1) 35.5 DEGREES 2012
2) 34.7 DEGREES 1981
3) 34.6 DEGREES 2002
4) 34.5 DEGREES 1954
5) 34.4 DEGREES 1984
6) 33.9 DEGREES 1976
7) 32.5 DEGREES 1953
32.5 DEGREES 1960
9) 31.8 DEGREES 1949
10) 31.7 DEGREES 1991

BENNINGTON VT:
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 30.3 DEGREES / 5.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL

LOOKING BACK TO 2000…FEBRUARY 2000 WAS ALSO WARM WITH AN AVERAGE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE 27.4 DEGREES.

PITTSFIELD MA:
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 29.6 DEGREES / 5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL

LOOKING BACK TO 2000…FEBRUARY 2002 WAS ALSO WARM WITH AN AVERAGE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 29.2 DEGREES.

NOTE:
MONTHLY CLIMATE REPORTS AND SEASONAL (DEC-JAN-FEB) CLIMATE REPORTS
WERE ISSUED FOR ALBANY NY…GLENS FALLS NY…POUGHKEEPSIE
NY…PITTSFIELD MA AND BENNINGTON VT. THESE PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND ON
OUR CLIMATE WEB PAGE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ALY

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063-082>084.
MA…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…JPV
NEAR TERM…JPV
SHORT TERM…JPV
LONG TERM…FRUGIS
AVIATION…NAS
HYDROLOGY…JPV
CLIMATE…IAA

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