Wednesday February 29 2012

Leap day storm

2:00P.M. Wednesday February 29, 2012

Welcome to Kingston Snows!!

School Forecast For:
Wednesday February 29, 2012
Two-Hour Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
0% 0% 60%

2:00PM Update

Right now the National Weather Service is forecasting a 100% chance of snow throughout the rest of the afternoon. Around 8PM they have a 100% chance of snow turning to a mix of precipitation with accumulations leveling off. They then have a 80% chance of mixed precipitation through 6AM Thursday, followed by a 50% chance of rain showers during the rest of Thursday morning.

After monitoring the radar during the day, it is clear that there is a distinct back edge to the precipitation which is now located over central New York. Based on the current radar trends, I would expect this back edge to move through the Hudson Valley around 3PM or 3:30PM, with light snow showers possible through 6PM. I assume that the NWS is currently thinking that an area of precipitation currently over Kentucky and Tennessee will move through the Kingston area, but I am not yet convinced that this precipitation… or the bulk of it… won't pass just to our south- - or affect us for just a couple f hours, and then shift eastward after 9PM or 10PM.

I will leave it at that for right now, and wait to see how the situation plays out. My only definite call right now will be for a lull in the precipitation between 3:30PM and 6PM… something that the NWS does not indicate. I will wait until the 6PM update to post any cancellation probabilities for Thursday.

The NWS forecast follows below:
3 to 5 inches of snow is possible through sunset.
After noon high around 35.

Wednesday Night
Snow will likely turn over to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain after 7PM. Ice and sleet accumulations during this time will depend on how much mixing occurs. Up to 0.1 inches of ice accretion is possible. Up to an inch of sleet is possible. Lows will be around 30 degrees.

Rain, snow, and sleet before 2PM, then a chance of rain after 2PM.
80% chance of precipitation. A 30% chance of rain and snow before 10PM High of 41.

As of 2:10PM, Kingston has picked up 2.70 inches of snow

Next Update:
By 6PM Thursday.


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