Wednesday February 29, 2012

Last night of "winter"

Updated:
9:45P.M. Wednesday February 29, 2012

Welcome to Kingston Snows!!

School Forecast For:
Thursday March 1, 2012
Two-Hour Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
30% 10% 0%

9:45PM Update

Light drizzle will continue overnight.
A round of steadier rain showers will be possible between about 2AM and about 7AM. Sleet may mix in during that time. Sleet accumulations, if any, will be under an inch.

The drizzle this evening has actually helped to clear roads, and most plowed roads in the Kingston area are simply wet. These conditions should continue through the night. A pre-dawn burst of snow or sleet still can't be ruled out, but otherwise, most roads should be in fairly decent shape by the morning.

No changes to the probabilities.

March 1st marks the beginning of meteorological spring.
There are no foreseeable snow events in the forecast.


6:00PM Update

As expected, we are now in a lull with little or no precipitation falling.
The NWS has finally noted this in their discussion, however, their overall forecast remains the same. I am largely ignoring their forecast through midnight, on the basis that they are down playing the affects of the dry slot.

Currently, I expect that this dry slot will last through at least 9PM. After 9PM, we may receive a brief period of snow/mix from the area of precipitation that I mentioned was over Kentucky during the 2PM update. As I speculated before, it appears increasingly likely that most of the precipitation will pass to our south, leaving us with only a relatively brief window of light precipitation. It may miss us entirely.

After 12AM, the NWS is forecasting a secondary low to develop along the coast. They expect that this low will spread a round of "more organized and widespread" precipitation back into the region as a mix of rain, snow, and sleet- - depending on how much cool air is able to mix in. Provided that it isn't mostly rain, we could receive up to an additional inch of snow/sleet by 7AM tomorrow. Rain or showers snow through 11AM.

For now, I will go with a 30% chance of a delay, and a 10% chance of a closing for tomorrow.

Final Update by 10PM.


2:00PM Update

Right now the National Weather Service is forecasting a 100% chance of snow throughout the rest of the afternoon. Around 8PM they have a 100% chance of snow turning to a mix of precipitation with accumulations leveling off. They then have a 80% chance of mixed precipitation through 6AM Thursday, followed by a 50% chance of rain showers during the rest of Thursday morning.

After monitoring the radar during the day, it is clear that there is a distinct back edge to the precipitation which is now located over central New York. Based on the current radar trends, I would expect this back edge to move through the Hudson Valley around 3PM or 3:30PM, with light snow showers possible through 6PM. I assume that the NWS is currently thinking that an area of precipitation currently over Kentucky and Tennessee will move through the Kingston area, but I am not yet convinced that this precipitation… or the bulk of it… won't pass just to our south- - or affect us for just a couple f hours, and then shift eastward after 9PM or 10PM.

I will leave it at that for right now, and wait to see how the situation plays out. My only definite call right now will be for a lull in the precipitation between 3:30PM and 6PM… something that the NWS does not indicate. I will wait until the 6PM update to post any cancellation probabilities for Thursday.

The NWS forecast follows below:
Wednesday
Snow.
3 to 5 inches of snow is possible through sunset.
After noon high around 35.

Wednesday Night
Snow will likely turn over to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain after 7PM. Ice and sleet accumulations during this time will depend on how much mixing occurs. Up to 0.1 inches of ice accretion is possible. Up to an inch of sleet is possible. Lows will be around 30 degrees.

Thursday
Rain, snow, and sleet before 2PM, then a chance of rain after 2PM.
80% chance of precipitation. A 30% chance of rain and snow before 10PM High of 41.

As of 2:10PM, Kingston has picked up 2.70 inches of snow

Next Update:
By 6PM Thursday.

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