Fbruary 26, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 261433
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
933 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT…AND
THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TRACK ALONG THE UNITED STATES…CANADA BORDER
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND…TRACKING OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
A TRANQUIL DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS REMAIN A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE TERRAIN STILL REPORTING OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20KTS. AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION…THIS WILL ALLOW
THOSE WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

AFTER A CHILLY START ACROSS THE REGION…WITH STRONGER FEBRUARY
SUNSHINE…TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO EXPECTED MAX VALUES. PER
12Z SOUNDINGS…HIGHS FROM 1000 FOOT ELEVATIONS TO THE VALLEY
FLOOR SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
TONIGHT…THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION…BUT
BY EARLY MONDAY…ANOTHER WEAK MOISTURE STARVED NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUDS…ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
THE SURFACE WILL WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING…THEN HOLD STEADY IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING…THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER IMPULSE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION…BUT WITH WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW…AND LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT…JUST SOME SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH TO THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND PERHAPS CATSKILLS. A SOUTH BREEZE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
PULL SOME MILDER AIR BACK INTO MOST OF THE REGION VIA A SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST BREEZE…EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A WARM FRONT AND
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. H850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO JUMP FROM +5C
SOUTH TO ABOUT 0C WELL NORTH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND
BACK TO THE LOWER 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD…40S
MOST OTHER PLACES…EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S ADIRONDACK PARK AND
PORTIONS OF THE GREENS.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING PERHAPS WITH
A FEW MORE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. COLD
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN BRISK WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES…TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A NEW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. IT WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THOSE HIGHS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE 30S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY…40-45 ALBANY AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/…
A MID WEEK ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…POSSIBLY EVEN
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT…IS NOW FORECAST TO BE A CONSIDERABLY
COLDER EVENT BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MAINLY SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
FORECAST TO OCCUR ONLY DURING PEAK HEATING TIMES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY. AND EVEN THEN ONLY LOW TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH ARE FORECAST TO GET A MIX.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DOUBLE BARRELED IN NATURE WITH THE INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING PART OF THE SYSTEM OCCURRING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. FOR
NOW HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS DURING THAT PERIOD. BEYOND THAT…THE
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL PART OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY…
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN PCPN ON FRIDAY…THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AREA. PRIMARILY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
IN THE ALY FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE SWATH OF PCPN ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF
TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE GFS SIMPLY MOVES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. WARMER ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SO MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW HAS BEEN
FORECAST…ESPECIALLY WHEN THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
SATURDAY. SINCE THIS EVENT IS SO FAR OUT…HAVE FORECAST POPS NO
HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE WISE…LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 30S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY P6SM SKC) WILL OCCUR AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU
TAF SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z MONDAY. AFTER 00Z
MONDAY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE KGFL/KALB TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY…EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS AT KALB/KPOU…WITH GUSTS OF
15 TO 20 KTS TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. AT KGFL…EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS…THEN BECOMING CALM BY JUST
BEFORE SUNSET.

OUTLOOK….
MON AM…VFR…NO SIG WX.
MON PM…VFR…SLGT CHC -SHRASN FOR KGFL.
TUE…VFR…NO SIG WX.
TUE NGT-THU…SUB-VFR…CIG. CHC IFR IN -SN/-RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SOME GAGES ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY ICE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

DRY TODAY…SOME VERY LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW (NORTH) ON MONDAY
WITH ANY MEASURABLE QPF AMOUNTS WELL UNDER QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MORE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT
THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SNOW AND NOT ALL THAT HEAVY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER THAT LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY
WITH EITHER SOME RAIN OR SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM…HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM…GJM
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES…PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

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