February 12, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 121532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL…AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.
A BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
UTILIZING SOME LAKE MOISTURE…AND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 1000 AM EST…CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE VERY COLD WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH A FEW LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM AS WIND
CHILL CRITERIA WAS NO LONGER BEING MET ACROSS THIS AREA. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECT
THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE FA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OF
AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE
VALLEY. THE SNOW WILL BE A RESULT OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
COUPLED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. STILL EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO
RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS AND
20S…EXCEPT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 645 AM EST…WE WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM. T/TD/RH/APPARENT
TEMPS TRENDS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE PAST FEW HOURS OF
OBSERVATIONS. MULTIBANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUE OVER W-CNTRL
NY. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
ERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. WE STARTED WITH
SLIGHT CHC POPS…AND INCREASED TO CHC POPS BY THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY PM. THE RUC40 SHOWS A VORT MAX IN NW FLOW IS
APPROACHING FROM SE ONTARIO…AND ENHANCING THE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION. CLOUD TRENDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE PICTURE.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM…

AS OF 4 AM EST…A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE
EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE CLOSED H500 UPPER LOW TIED TO THE
POLAR VORTEX IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY OVER CNTRL-NRN
QUEBEC. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STILL
ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH H850 TEMPS EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO AROUND
-18C TO -22C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH…AND -15C TO -18C
SOUTH AND EAST. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST…AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES E/NE OF NOVA SCOTIA…AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE H500 TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTING.

THERE IS A VORT MAX/UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW THAT WILL
CONTINUE THE MULTIBANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE DOMINATE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM WILL BE FROM THE NW /AROUND 310
DEGREES/. THE LAKE ONTARIO TEMP IS ABOUT 5C…AND THE SFC-850
HPA…SFC-700 HPA DELTA T/S ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AT TIMES AT THE KSYR…KUCA…KRME SOUNDINGS. THE
PROBLEM FOR SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT IS THE TRAJECTORY FAVORS
MAINLY MULTIBANDS…AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DOES LOWER TO
ABOUT 5 KFT AGL IN THE EARLY TO MID PM. WE THINK SOME OF THE
MULTIBANDS COULD GET INTO THE ERN CATSKILLS…SCHOHARIE
VALLEY…AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH. FURTHER EAST…SOME SNOW SHOWERS
COULD SNEAK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATE IN THE PM…AND THE EARLY
EVENING.

THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES FOR ALBANY SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF HAVING A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS IF WE MIX TO ABOUT
H925. IT WILL BE VERY BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST…EXCEPT SOME SINGLE DIGITS READINGS TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE
ADIRONDACK PARK…AND SRN GREENS. UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WILL BE
COMMON SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
FROM 10 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY. WE KEPT THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY UP FOR THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 9 AM WITH SOME WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW. THE WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED A BIT OVER THE
SRN GREENS AND THE WIND CHILLS APPEAR THEY WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF
THE -20F CRITERIA. WE CANCELED THE ADVISORY THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…
TONIGHT…A WEAK WARM FRONT…AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/NW FLOW
WILL INTERACT WITH SOME LAKE MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. THIS WILL NOT BE A PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WARMING…AND SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF
THE WEAK WARM FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE W/NW WITH A
290 DEGREE TRAJECTORY. WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FOR SRN HERKIMER CTY…ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WE ARE LOOKING FOR A TOTAL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN MONTGOMERY…SRN HERKIMER…AND MOST
OF SCHOHARIE CTY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY /INCLUDING LATE SUNDAY PM/.
THERE WAS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/CAN GGEM/GFS WITH THIS
LIGHT SNOW EVENT. THE 290 DEGREE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY WILL FAVOR A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE TACONICS…AND SRN GREENS…AND
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY ALSO RECEIVED A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL. DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION…TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION…AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY…THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
I-90 NORTHWARD IN THE MORNING…THEN TAPERING TO JUST CHC VALUES
ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE S/SW FROM THE OH VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. H850 TEMPS WARM BACK TO -4C TO -10C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FCST AREA. TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO MID-FEB SEASONAL
VALUES. WE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY THE
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY NIGHT…THE H500 TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES…AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE FLAT FLOW APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY…AND THE MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE A
SMALL WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WE WENT WITH THE COLDER METMOS MINS…WITH MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE FCST AREA…EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER
THE SRN DACKS.

TUE-TUE NIGHT…MUCH OF THE REGION GETS BACK INTO A MILD AIR MASS
WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION…AND
DAMPENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY/LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE MOST OF THE DAY DRY…BUT
CLOUDY. THE SYNOPTIC/QG LIFT IS VERY WEAK WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
WE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EAST…AND LOW CHC TO THE WEST FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
IMPULSE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION…AND
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH U30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEYS…AND LOWER
TO M30S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
FLOW WILL REMAIN FAST ACROSS CONUS WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO
HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH INTERACTIONS THERE MAY BE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING
OVER THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS TRACKS
THE LOW FROM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD BEING DRAWN THAT WAY
BY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. HOWEVER…THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST KEEPING THE STREAMS
SEPARATE. THE LOW TRACK WILL IMPACT THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE
P-TYPES. GUIDANCE FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
FAVORS THE EUROPEAN AS IT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SPLIT FLOW WHICH WE
HAVE HAD THIS WINTER AND STATES IT HAS BEEN BE THE MOST STABLE OF
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. AT THIS
TIME…ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY RAIN
WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW AT NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS…RAIN/SNOW…MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT DUE TO SHORT WAVES
ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE THE UPPER OVER HUDSON BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
WILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z/MONDAY WITH
COLDER AIR BEING USHERED IN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE AS THE COLDER AIR PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT
LAKES AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER…A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT KALB
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FLOW COMES DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY TODAY. WINDS SPEED WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS HOLDING ON AT KALB THROUGH THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK…
MON…MAINLY VFR. BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING WITH A CHC -SHSN AT KALB.
MON NIGHT-TUE AM…VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE AFTN-NIGHT…VFR. MVFR POSSIBLY WITH A CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
WED-THU AM…VFR. NO SIG WX
THU PM…VFR/MVFR WITH CHC -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
GAGES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ICE EFFECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA/HSA/.

THE FRIGID AIR MASS TODAY LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL ALLOW
ICE TO THICKEN AND FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HSA…ESPECIALLY
FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY…AND CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL LINGER TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH…ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…WASULA
NEAR TERM…11/WASULA
SHORT TERM…WASULA
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…IAA
HYDROLOGY…WASULA

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