Februay 8, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 082142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 PM EST WED FEB 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
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LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL BE REPLACED BY
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS RAPIDLY FROM THE ARKLATEX TO DELMARVA REGIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT…BUT A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BREAKS THIS FEATURE DOWN. THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AS IT
BROADENS WHILE HEADING OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/…
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SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH MAY BRING
SOME EARLY EVENING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES
MOVES OFF CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER…AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN…THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN…KEEPING SOME WINDS AROUND
OVERNIGHT THUS LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE DROP. WENT WITH ADJUSTED
NAM TEMPERATURES…WHICH GIVES LOWS RANGING FROM ABOUT 10 DEGREES
IN THE ADIRONDACKS…TO THE LOW AND MID 20S FROM THE CAPITOL
REGION ON SOUTH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
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WENT WITH THE NAM/ADJUSTED NAM GUIDANCE…AS IT IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF FOR SATURDAY/S FRONT AND PRECIP…WITH THE GFS BEING MORE OF
AN OUTLIER. THE PERIOD IS RATHER TRANQUIL UNTIL FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT JOINS FORCES WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SPREAD
PRIMARILY SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THIS IS
A MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM AS IT IS TOO QUICK-MOVING TO HAVE A BIG
IMPACT. FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY MORNING…IT TRACKS
FROM TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TO OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. ATTM…
SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH AT
MOST LOCATIONS…WITH THE ADIRONDACKS RECEIVING UP TO ABOUT AN
INCH AND A HALF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAYS…AND HIGHS BY THEN WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S RANGE. HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS MAY BE MORE
AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS IN THE HIGH PEAKS…THE 20S TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S…AND FRIDAY NIGHT…
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…TO THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
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SATURDAY…ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING. SOME 12Z/GEFS MEMBERS…AS WELL AS THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF…SUGGEST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR…A STEADIER PERIOD OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION SATURDAY. FOR NOW…HAVE
INCLUDED HIGH CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS…HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING…BEFORE DECREASING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE VERY LEAST…SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SQUALLS SHOULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT…WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND…AND THE TACONICS ON SATURDAY…WHERE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE W/NW FLOW ALONG WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE MID LEVELS
COULD ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS…PERHAPS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS IN
SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE…EXPECT WINDY AND COLDER TEMPS…WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY FALLING FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
MAXES TO REACH THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION…AND TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS…WITH MAXES MAINLY
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY.

SAT NT-SUN NT…ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME…ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CORE OF AIR
MASS REACHES CWA…OR REMAINS MAINLY N/E OF REGION. AT THIS
TIME…HAVE FOLLOWED SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF
SOLUTION…KEEPING THE COLDEST CORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
POINTS N AND NE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY…ALTHOUGH EXACT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
REGARDING POTENTIAL WIND SHEAR…AND INVERSION HEIGHTS. FOR
NOW…HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS IN TRADITIONALLY FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS WITH W/NW FLOW. IN VALLEY AREAS…SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE…ESP SUNDAY AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. AS FOR TEMPS…GENERALLY WENT A BIT ABOVE THE MEX
MOS…WITH SUNDAY MAXES REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY…EXCEPT POSSIBLY 25-30 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT…WITH MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT
NT…EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…AND GENERALLY 5 TO 15 WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. FOR SUN NT…EVEN COLDER MINS ARE EXPECTED…ASSUMING
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES…WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS…EXCEPT 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE WITHIN MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH…AND -5 TO -15 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN SOUTHERN VT. WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…AS WELL
AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS…AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
SAT NT/SUN AM…AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUN NT.

MON-WED…GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS WARM
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS…AND A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE…CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED…ESP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE…EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S AND LOWER 30S MON…WARMING INTO THE 30S TO NR 40 FOR
TUE/WED…WITH OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY IN THE 20S IN VALLEYS…AND
TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OHIO VALLEY STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. CLOUD
CANOPY WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF
THE CIGS EXPECTED AT KPOU. LATEST TRENDS FROM THE RUC/HRRR POINTS
TOWARD SOME SNOW SHOWERS /WET BULB EFFECT/ THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINAL AND WILL PLACE A VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE A SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT
WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENTS TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY TOWARD SKC.

OUTLOOK…
THU-FRI…VFR…NO SIG WX.
FRI NT-SAT…MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR WITH SHSN.
SAT NT…VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN…MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN AT KALB AND KGFL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
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NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SOME GAGES
ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY ICE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA.

PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION TO
OCCUR LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…AND AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…ELH
NEAR TERM…ELH
SHORT TERM…ELH
LONG TERM…VTK
AVIATION…BGM
HYDROLOGY…KL/ELH

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