January 31, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 311444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
944 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY…ALLOWING FOR A MILDER AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY…FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
— Changed Discussion —
AS OF 930 AM…WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX WITH
FASTER IMPROVEMENTS. SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS MOSUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS…MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SLOWLY
ADVANCEMENT NORTHWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER WITH ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENTS…BUT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE…ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE…HIGH TEMPERATURE PER THE 12Z SOUNDINGS LOOK GREAT PER
THE FORECAST WITH A REFRESH OF HOURLY VALUES.

AS OF 645 AM…ONLY PATCHY LIGHT SNOW LEFTOVER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS
FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS…WHICH INCLUDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WEATHER TO CUT OUT MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION…

AS OF 445 AM…LIGHT SNOW ALREADY WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA…AS
RADAR RETURNS ARE DECREASING WITH MOST OF WHAT IS LEFT FALLING
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN FORCING WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY. ONCE
THE LIGHT SNOW ENDS SHORTLY…JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE
WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR UP NORTH
WHERE 30S WILL LINGER. FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE AND KINGSTON SHOULD EXCEED 50 TODAY WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE. OVERALL A MILD DAY TO END JANUARY.
— End Changed Discussion —

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/…
AS OF 445 AM…THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT…WITH A W-SW FLOW ALOFT. DECOUPLING
WILL OCCUR IN MANY AREAS BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING. TOWARDS LATE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS…AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
FORCING WILL BE DUE TO WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING. EXPECTING SURFACE TEMPS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO
MENTION OF FROZEN PRECIP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH IN PIECES ON WEDNESDAY…AS THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS NOISY AND NOT DISTINCT. AS A RESULT…TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MILD…ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS OFF
THE CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE LIKELY…WITH
COOLER LOWE TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE BUT TEMPS STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. WILL MENTION SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS…MIXING WITH SOME SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES
IN.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY…AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. A NOTICEABLE
STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME…BUT GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL WITH ONLY MINIMAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM…SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT US.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROF. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD CONTINUES. OVERALL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES AS A LOW
CLOSES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW. THE
ECMWF CUTS IT OFF KEEPING IN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL ITS PICK UP BY
THE NORTHERN STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
THE LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD 12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT A
MILDER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN TODAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK…
WED…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
WED NIGHT-SAT…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
RIVER FLOWS CONTINUE TO RECEDE…ALTHOUGH SOME GAGE SITES REMAIN
IMPACTED BY ICE. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE RIVERS
THROUGH THE WEEK…OTHER THAN THOSE AREAS WHERE BREAK UP ICE JAMS
ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY…WHICH IS WHEN SOME BREAK UP ICE JAMS MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER…DUE TO ICE NOT BEING VERY THICK…BREAK UPS WILL LIKELY
NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS.

PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL HAVE
NO EFFECTS ON MAIN STEM RIVERS. SNOW MELT DURING THE MID WEEK WILL
REFREEZE AT NIGHT…WITH ONLY MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…JPV
NEAR TERM…BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM…JPV
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…IAA
HYDROLOGY…JPV

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