Monday January 16, 2012

Wintry Mix tonight

Updated:
5:30 P.M. Monday January 16, 2012

Welcome to Kingston Snows!!

School Forecast For:
Tuesday January 17, 2012
Two-Hour Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
40%
10%
0%

A low pressure system will approach from the west this evening. This will spread a round of precipitation into the area tonight into Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually rise overnight and through Tuesday afternoon.

Snow will develop between 8PM and 11PM, possibly mixing with sleet at times. Snow accumulations of up to half an inch or so are forecast.

By 2AM, we should transition over to mainly freezing rain and sleet. Accumulations will be limited once we transition over, as sleet does not accumulate nearly as much as snow. No significant ice accumulations are expected.

Sleet and freezing rain should persist until around 5AM when the temperature rises above the freezing mark. At this point we should transition over to plain rain.

Rain will continue throughout most of the afternoon and possibly linger into the early evening. The high on Tuesday will be around 44 degrees.

Based on this forecast and the timings, I have decided to increase the probabilities. A delay is probable, but not categorical.

With tonight's mix of precipitation, the type will partially depend on intensity: heavier precipitation will result in more wintry precipitation, while lighter precipitation will allow for more in the way of freezing rain and rain. The probabilities above take this into consideration.

A winter weather advisory is in effect from 10PM tonight through 10AM Tuesday. I will have a brief post by 10PM tonight with any updates.

Next Update:
By 10PM.

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