January 11, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 120253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW
MORNING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND
EAST…AS A COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS…AS WELL AS BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS TO CLOSE THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/…
PRECIPITATION BUILDING INTO THE AREA…AND THERE IS QUITE A RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. AREA
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT SO PRECIPITATION COULD
COOL THE COLUMN DOWN TO WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING SOME
SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS. THE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN SOUTHERN AREAS DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IF ANY SNOW…SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN…BUT SOME REMOTE AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION. SO…WHILE
TEXT FORECSTS MAY NOT REFLECT WINTERY PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS…IT SHOULD SHOW UP IN POINT AND CLICK AT POINTS WHERE
TRACES OF SNOW AND ICE COULD OCCUR.

AREAS AROUND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
MAY NOT GET BELOW FREEZING WITH INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS…BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEARBY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTERY
PRECIPITATION. ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY SEEING NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN OTHER
AREAS…LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN CANADA.
KEEPING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THE ONSET TONIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS.

SO…NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL ALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN LATER TONIGHT.

PREV AFD BELOW…

SURFACE HIGH IN CANADA NOSING A LITTLE SOUTH THIS EVENING…AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES SEEN IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEEP
SOUTH. SOME TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY APPROACHED FORECASTED
MINIMA…BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
TOO MUCH. SO OTHER THAN A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES…NO
OTHER CHANGES UNTIL A LOOK AT 00Z DATA FOR LATER ADJUSTMENTS.

PREV AFD BELOW…

AS OF 400 PM EST…AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS SETTING OF FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A DOUBLE BARREL STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM/SUBTROPICAL JET H500 UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING N/NE FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM…A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE CNTRL CANADA PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH PLAINS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE UNPHASED IN TERMS OF THE JET INTERACTIONS..BUT BOTH WILL
STILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECONDARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SRN APPALACHIANS WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NEAR
WASHINGTON DC BY MIDNIGHT…WITH THE PRIMARY LOW UPSTREAM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE ARE EXPECTING THE OVER RUNNING PCPN TO BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BTWN 03Z-
06Z…AND THEN RAPIDLY EXPANDING N/NE OVER THE AREA BTWN 06Z-09Z.
THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GUIDANCE/ECMWF ALL SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 295K SFC. THE STRONGEST QG OMEGA TENDS TO BE INITIALLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST…BUT THEN EXPANDS
NORTHWARD BTWN 09Z-12Z. AN IMPRESSIVE E/SE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES
OVER THE REGION TAPPING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE LATEST GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES HAVE PWAT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALY. THE
H850 -U COMPONENT WIND ANOMALIES ARE 4+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH SHOULD YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE WRN
GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES…ESPECIALLY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

THE PTYPE IS A BIT CHALLENGING…BUT THE GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON
A WARM SOLUTION WITH THE 1200 UTC CYCLES. THE NAM AND GFS CRITICAL
PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND BUFFER SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ONSET OF SNOW AND
SLEET OVER THE SRN TIER EXPANDING NORTHWARD WITH A RAPID
TRANSITION TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY…CAPITAL DISTRICT…AND SRN VT SOUTH. FURTHER
NORTH MAY HAVE THE HEAVIEST TOTALS OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH A LIGHT
ICE COATING. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ON THE NAM GET CLOSE TO ZERO
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT…SO THERE COULD BE EVEN A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE PERIOD OF A LIGHT MIX FOR NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
LIKELY BE VERY BRIEF. WE FELT IT WAS NECESSARY TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW…AND EMPHASIZED A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 8-10 AM THERE /MAYBE SOONER/. ANY ACCRETION
OF ICE WARRANTS AN ADVISORY…AND ERN ULSTER…DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY COULD GET A COATING HERE AND THERE. FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION…AND MOHAWK VALLEY…EXPECT AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW AND SLEET. THE NRN BERKSHIRES…NRN AND ERN
CATSKILLS AND HELDERBERGS MAY GET 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
WITH A TRANSITION OF ICE BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. FURTHER NORTH
IS WHERE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED…ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SRN GREENS AND ERN DACKS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE ADVISORY BEGINS FOR THE SRN DACKS AT 4
AM…AND WILL GO LATER…MORE ON THAT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST SEGMENT.

LOWS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT…WITH WET BULB VALUES SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z-12Z. EXPECT LOWS IN THE U20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLY/CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST…WITH LOWER TO MID 20S
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
TOMORROW…THE STRONG SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED H500 TROUGH TURNS
NEGATIVE AND SWINGS THE PARENT SFC LOW NORTHEAST OF ERN LONG
ISLAND TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR BEGINS
TO RUSH NORTHWARD OF THE WAVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
TURNING TO RAIN FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST. THE H850
E/SE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY BY THE LATE MORNING TO 40-60 KTS. WE ARE
EXPECTING SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 35-40 MPH OVER WRN BENNINGTON CTY
OFF THE SRN GREEN MTNS. THESE EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DRY
UP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY…BUT
ENHANCE IT OFF THE ERN DACKS…AND ERN GREENS /INCLUDING WINDHAM
CTY VT/. WE COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET /A FEW
ISOLD AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE/ WITH A LIGHT COATING OF GLAZE OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE NRN ZONES. THE ANOMALOUS LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL LIKELY COUNTER ACT THE H1000-850
AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS OF 20-30 KTS. OVERALL…THE GREATEST ICE
AMOUNTS WE HAVE ARE IN THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
LAKE GEORGE REGION WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF INCH…THIS IS
EXPECTED ON TOP OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IN THAT AREA.
WE CONTINUED THE ADVISORY TO NOON SOUTH OF THE SRN DACKS…AS THE
WARMER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE U30S TO M40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST…WITH MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST. THE DRY
SLOT TO THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

THU NIGHT…THE NEXT STRONG H500 DISTURBANCE DIGS E/SE OVER THE OH
VALLEY…WITH THE PERSISTENT H500 SW FLOW OVER THE REGION. IN THE
DRY SLOT WE LOSE THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS…AND SOME OF THE TEMPS MAY
FALL INTO THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE…AND ALSO SOME
ICE PELLETS THERE. WE MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY OR SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO COVER THIS LATER. MOST OF THE REGION MAY GET A
LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WE STARTED TO INCREASE POPS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH THE APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT.

FRIDAY…LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION…AND MOVES OVER UPSTATE NY AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT H500 CLOSED LOW WILL FOCUS SOME RAIN TO
SNOW SHOWER OVER THE REGION. H500 TEMPS GET TO -30C TO -33C OVER
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THE DYNAMIC DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN TO SNOW
SQUALLS. THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TOO. LOW AND MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING…AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND NOONTIME. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE COLDER
METMOS VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE U30S TO L40S FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST…AND LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND WEST. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY GET INTO THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE OVER THE WRN
DACKS OR MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LOW INTENSIFIES TO AROUND 980 HPA…IT
WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH W/SW WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT…STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE REGION
WITH LAKE EFFECT AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE REGION OF
THE SRN GREENS…NRN TACONICS…BERKSHIRES…AND WRN DACKS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO L20S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION…WITH
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BLUSTERY AS THE LOW BECOMES OCCLUDED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
OVER THE WEEKEND…THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY AND SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER…IT WON/T BE BRUTALLY
COLD BY ANY STRETCH. THE 12 UTC GEFS IS SHOWING 850 HPA TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL…WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOUT 1-2 STD BELOW
NORMAL. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC 12 UTC GFS IS SHOWING 850 HPA
TEMPS OF AROUND -15 DEGREES C FOR SATURDAY…AND -16 TO -18 DEGREES
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S ON
SATURDAY…AND MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR SUNDAY. MIN
TEMPS ON SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS…WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WHILE
THIS WILL PROBABLY WIND UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDER NIGHTS OF THE
SEASON SO FAR…IT/S STILL NOT FAR FROM WHAT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL OR
EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS…ESP IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HOWEVER…THE FLOW WON/T BE OVERLY CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT…AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 1 KM WILL KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AS FAIRLY LIGHT AND CONFINED CLOSE TO THE LAKE SHORE. WILL
ONLY ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD CHC POPS FOR PARTS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/SCHOHARIE COUNTY FOR SAT MORNING…BEFORE LOWERING POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE
COOL SIDE…BUT NOTHING UNHEARD OF FOR MID JANUARY…WITH 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. MIN TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY WIND
UP BEING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT…AS TEMPS MAY SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR NOW…HAVE
GONE WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS NORTHERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS…WITH P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON
ELEVATION/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL PROBABLY WARM
UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS RAIN…ESP CONSIDERING
THIS STORM IS COMING FROM THE WEST WITH A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 30S IN VALLEY
AREAS…WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND QPF WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT…WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM…COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT COULD
AFFECT FAR WESTERN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO GO BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY…WITH MAINLY TEENS AND 20S FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE REGION FROM AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A LIGHT NNE DRAINAGE WIND IN PLACE ACROSS
THE HUDSON VALLEY FOR KGFL/KALB.

PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT…AFTER
MIDNIGHT NEAR KPOU…AND TOWARDS 08Z-09Z FOR KALB/KGFL. AT
KPOU…THE PRECIP WILL BRIEFLY BE A SLEET/RAIN MIX BEFORE GOING
OVER TO JUST PLAIN RAIN. KALB WILL SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
SN/PL/FZRA JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BEFORE GOING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN
AROUND 12Z-13Z. MEANWHILE…COLDER AIR WILL HANG IN AT KGFL TO
KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP AS A SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET MIX THERE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER…THE PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY GO TO JUST
RAIN EVEN AT KGFL BY EARTLY AFTN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM UP
ENOUGH. VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THE PRECIP…AND PERHAPS EVEN
IFR AT TIMES…ESP IN AREAS THAT SEE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOWFALL. CIGS
WILL BE LOW END MVFR…AND COULD PERHAPS EVEN BE IFR AT TIMES. FOR
NOW…HAVE KEPT MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHEN AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE.

PRECIP WILL START TO TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS…ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENTS IN THE VSBY.
HOWEVER…MVFR CIGS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH STRATUS AND MIST HANGING AROUND.

SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE EVENT…WITH SFC SPEEDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER…LLWS MAY BE A CONCERN AROUND SUNRISE
TOMORROW…AS E-SE WINDS AT AROUND 2 KFT WILL BE 40-50 KTS. THIS
MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IN FUTURE TAFS.

OUTLOOK…
THU NT-FRI…MVFR/IFR…RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING AS SNOW.
FRI NT-SUN…VFR…NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MIX PRECIPITATION TO THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA OVERNIGHT…TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN…ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL OR SECONDARY LOW
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THURSDAY EVENING. WE
ARE EXPECTING SOME DOWNSLOPING TO REDUCE TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND A HALF AN INCH IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY…AND PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL TEND TO BE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE ARE EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS WITH SOME MINOR RISES AT BEST. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN BASINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT…A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR BTWEEN THE SYSTEMS…WITH
A DRY SLOT. THERE MIGHT BE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH SPOTTY PLAIN
RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY….AS IT MOVES OVER
UPSTATE NY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS. TOTAL
QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A TENTH TO A HALF AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. COLDER AIR AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>041-
043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…NAS
NEAR TERM…NAS

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