January 10, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 101530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY BUILD FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 10 AM…UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

AS OF 645 AM EST…SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS LEAVING THE FORECAST MAINLY IN TACT
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO PICK UP 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW WITH AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE. THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS OUR REGION WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 345 AM EST…SOME SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WEB CAMS IT
APPEARS THAT THE SNOW IS ONLY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THIS AREA INTO THIS MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST OF THE FA. MUCH OF THE FA WILL EXPERIENCE
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING DUE TO THIS DISTURBANCE WITH
SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME QUITE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/…
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND LAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING EAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS NORTHWEST TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST…AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 30S…EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S S OF ALBANY IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK ACTIVE AND WITH THE MODELS
CONTINUING TO TREND COLDER IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WINTRY MIX OF
PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE PCPN STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MAINLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS VALUES AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PTYPE BEING
MAINLY A WINTRY MIX SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY SNOW
NORTH WITH SOUTHERN AREAS TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON THURSDAY WHILE
NORTHERN ARES TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKING UP
THIS COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT PHASE WITH OUR AREA IN THE
MIDDLE OF TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STEAM SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO BE MUCH
CLOSER TO OUR REGION TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
DRIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM STILL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS AS WELL AS HPC
GUIDANCE. EXPECT TOTAL QPF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
OF AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA
WITH MOST AREAS HAVING AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA SEEING QPF AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO BREAK DOWN
EXACT SNOWFALL AND FREEZING RAIN TOTALS…HOWEVER MOUNTAIN AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH LESS IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ICE ACCRETION OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AND MENTION
THAT IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN…THEN ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
THU NT-FRI…AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVING OFF
NEW ENGLAND COAST…AND PRIMARY LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER…A MOIST E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INJECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN THE LOWS. LATER THU NT…AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY LOW APPROACHES…IN
COMBINATION WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING EAST…AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX STREAKING NE
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES…THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SQUEEZED OUT IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
MIX…TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY SNOW FRI MORNING AS MID LEVEL COOLING
DEEPENS. SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS…AS WELL AS THE 00Z/10 OPERATIONAL
GFS AND GEM INDICATE A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OCCLUDED
FRONT…FURTHER INTENSIFYING THE PRECIP. AT THIS POINT…WILL BOOST
POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR LATE THU NT INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY
FRI…HIGHEST ACROSS N AND W PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE FORCING
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. DURING THIS TIME…A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAPER
OFF DURING FRI AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE. AS FOR TEMPS…EXPECT MINS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER/MID 30S BY FRI MORNING…WITH
TEMPS THEN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS…AND HOLDING
MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRI.

FRI NT-SAT NT…IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM…COLDER AIR WILL
WRAP INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. AS THIS COLDER AIR CROSSES
THE RELATIVELY TEPID GREAT LAKES…LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…AND PERHAPS INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. AT THIS TIME…WILL
INCLUDE CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS NW AREAS…HIGHEST ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 30-35 WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY…WITH GENERALLY 20S ELSEWHERE…EXCEPT
TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…WITH OVERNIGHT MINS FRI
NT/SAT AM GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. MINS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER FOR SAT
NT/SUN AM…WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS EXPECTED…EXCEPT FOR SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON…HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD E FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION…ALLOWING FOR REDUCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
ALSO…DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS…OTHER THAN PASSING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS…WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER/MID
30S…WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY…AND OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OT DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS…WITH
BASES OF 4000-6000 FT AGL WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH BASES OF 5000-7000
FT AGL. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT…ESP
AT KGFL AND KALB…WITH BASES POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FT AGL.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION…MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
N/W OF KGFL AND KALB. HOWEVER…AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH…THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES AT KGFL…AND PERHAPS
KALB…BETWEEN 16Z-18Z.

OUTLOOK…
WED…VFR…NO SIG WX.
WED NGT-THU…VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM KPOU TO KGFL. -RA KPOU…-SN OR WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO
-RA AT KALB AND KGFL.
THU NIGHT…MVFR/IFR. CHC -SHRA…OVER TO -SHSN.
FRI…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHSN.
FRI NGT…VFR…NO SIG WX.
SAT…VFR…CHC MVFR LK EFFECT -SHSN/FLURRIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
IS EXPECTED TO BE A WINTRY MIX.

A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK VERY
CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A SECOND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WINTRY MIX OF
PCPN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MOSTLY SNOW NORTH. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN NORTH. QPF AMOUNTS
STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN…HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD GIVE WOULD HAVE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF
AN INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS TO PERHAPS AN INCH SOUTHEAST
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MILDER TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOW THE RATE OF ICE FORMATION AND THICKENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO
THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA/11
NEAR TERM…IAA/11
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…KL
AVIATION…IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY…11

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