January 7, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 071758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON…BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH EARLY SUNDAY…BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK TO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 1258 PM EST…BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS REMAINS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN DACKS FOR THIS
AFTN…ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM WEAK COLD
FRONT AND SOME MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ADKS.
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LIQUID FORM WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTN. AFTERWARD…COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH…IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. EVEN WITH
THE CLOUDS…TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM…WITH 40S IN MOST
AREAS…INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION…SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR…AND TEMPS HAVE SKYROCKETED
UPWARDS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT MIXING HAVE ALLOWED FOR
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL SEE TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S…AND EVEN APPROACHING 60 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS…BEFORE APPROACHING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ALLOWS TEMPS TO TUMBLE BACK DOWN.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS ARE BELOW…

AS OF 945 AM EST…A MILD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE OVER MOST THE
OF THE FCST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. A WEAK PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH IS FOCUSING SOME LIGHT PCPN ECHOES OVER NRN NY…THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE WRN DACKS. WE HAVEN/T RECEIVED TOO MANY
REPORTS OF ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY
WARMED ABOVE THE TRENDS IN THE WRN DACKS…THAT WE HAD TO RAISE
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THERE. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS WEAK
WITH THE BOUNDARY. WE RETRENDED THE POPS/WX TRENDS THRU THE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN PTYPE.

THE SKIES CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. WE RETRENDED THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS
BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS. TEMPS IN THE U40S TO EVEN M50S FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. IT IS A TRICKY QUESTION TO
WHAT LEVEL WE MIX FROM. BASED ON THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING…IT MIGHT BE
TO 925 HPA. OVERALL…TEMPS WILL RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
!!!

AS OF 645 AM EST…HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED
DATABASE…MAINLY ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
WINDS…ACCORDING TO RECENT OBS. SOME HIGH…AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW NY. IF THESE
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENE…THEY COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR
OUR WARM MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TODAY. FOR NOW…WILL NOT ADJUST
MAX TEMPS…BUT THIS TREND IN CLOUD COVER WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED…IN CASE MAX TEMPS NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS…

AS OF 345 AM EST…CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS…MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN VT…IN ASSOCIATION
WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/FORCING. MODELS SUGGEST
THIS AREA OF LIFT/FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS…POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FAR N AS THE SARATOGA REGION
AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE…EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WELL THIS MORNING.
ASSUMING THIS SUNSHINE OCCURS…TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM RAPIDLY
FROM THEIR CHILLY MINIMUMS…REACHING 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS…AND LOWER/MID 50S OR WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NW CT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON…AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW…CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE YET AGAIN…FIRST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY…AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING S AND E INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION…AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS…AND WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY…OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/…
TONIGHT…FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING…WITH A SECOND FRONT POISED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS…A WNW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION…AND
INCREASED LAKE MOISTURE. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO DEVELOP…ESP FROM ALBANY N AND W. IN
ADDITION…SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WELL ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND POTENTIAL LOOKS
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE EXPECTATION FOR RATHER LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS…GENERALLY AROUND OR UNDER 6000 FT. HOWEVER…OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY LEAD TO 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON
COS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE…GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND…HAVE SIDED WITH…OR EVEN WENT ABOVE THE WARMER
MET MOS FOR MINS…WITH GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
EXPECTED…WARMEST WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND CAPITAL
REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPS TONIGHT…OTHER THAN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…MAY BE ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY…WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LESS WIND IS
EXPECTED…POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR MINS TO FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY…SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE…WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION…AND POSSIBLE MINOR ACCUMS…OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS…WHERE PERHAPS AN INCH OR
TWO COULD OCCUR. THEN…IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT…COLDER AIR
WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION…WITH MAX TEMPS MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
IN THE MORNING…BEFORE TEMPS FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE
EFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS…HOWEVER A VEERING NW FLOW AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO BELOW 6000 FT SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
INTENSITY OF ANY LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME…WITH
MAINLY A CELLULAR NATURE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NT…LOW/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUN NT INTO MON. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME CLOUDS…AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
INITIALLY BE NW…BEFORE BACKING INTO THE W TO WSW BY LATE MONDAY.
SO…SHOULD ANY SNOWBANDS DEVELOP…THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE
CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY SUN NT…BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY…AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY LATE
MON. THE MIGRATORY NATURE OF ANY SNOWBANDS…IN ADDITION TO A
RATHER LOW INVERSION HEIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMTS DURING THIS TIME…WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE…EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS…WITH MAXES
MAINLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS…AND
LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS…WITH OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S FOR SUN NT/MON AM…AND 20S FOR TUE AM IN
VALLEYS…AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT…THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS
QUIET WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FA WHICH WILL START TO BOOST TEMPS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST
AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS TWO UPPER LOW SYSTEMS WILL PLAY
A ROLE IN IMPACTING OUR WEATHER ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS
TIME THAT THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PHASE. GFS…ECMWF AND GGEM LIFT A
CLOSED H5 LOW FROM THE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED MORNING
NORTHEAST TO THE BETWEEN THE SRN OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS
BY WED EVENING AND THEN TO SE OF LONG ISLAND OR NE PA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GGEM IS FARTHEST N AND W WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SE
OF THE GFS TRACK. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE WAVE HAS A TRACK NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO THE H5 LOW TRACK ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW HAVING A TRACK SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE H5 TRACK. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TRACK OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH IS CENTERED NORTH OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING…CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND AMOUNT OF QPF AT THIS TIME…IT DOES APPEAR
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR
REGION FOR PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN MIXED WITH SOME
SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE
GFS DURING THIS PERIOD RANGE FROM 0.50 INCH TO JUST UNDER 1.25
INCHES…ECMWF HAS JUST UNDER HALF AN INCH NORTHWEST AND UP TO 1.5
INCHES SOUTHEAST…WHILE GGEM HAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2/3 RDS OF AN
INCH AND AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALSO EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST
AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS IN IT`S WAKE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO SURGE INTO OUR
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. ALL
AREAS HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS…ALTHOUGH IT
WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER WITH THE WIND. EXPECT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
SOUTHEAST. H8 TEMPS BY LATE FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN
-14 AND -18 C ACRS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL OVER THE REGION.

THE SKIES WILL CLEAR SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING FROM KALB NORTHWARD. A MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT WITH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BTWN 10Z-13Z SUNDAY. THE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
VEERING TO THE W/NW TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 10 KTS OR LESS. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W/NW TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AT AROUND 10
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK…
SUN PM-WED…MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT-THU…VFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH CHC -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIMIT MORE FORMATION OR
THICKENING OF ICE ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY…MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS…IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THESE
AREAS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION…PROVIDING MAINLY RAIN. CURRENT MODEL QPF SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL…ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…WASULA
HYDROLOGY…IAA/KL

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