February 2, 2012 Forecast Discussion

…January Stats on this page…

000
FXUS61 KALY 021731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY…ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY…BRINGING FAIR WEATHER…AND TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE…AND
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/…
AS OF 1230 PM…STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS…STUCK UNDERNEATH A VERY
IMPRESSIVE INVERSION…AND GETTING SOME SEEDING FROM HIGH CLOUDS
ALOFT…ALONG WITH A SIGNATURE FOR A LITTLE MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE. (THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NW FLOW AT KRME…NE KGFL
AND NNE KALB). CSTAR STUDIES INDICATED WHEN WE HAVE THIS TIME OF
WIND REGINE…ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE…CAN PRODUCE ENOUGH
FORCING TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE CAPITAL REGION.). EITHER
WAY…ANY SNOW WILL BE FLURRIES (NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITY
LET ALONE ACCUMULATE). NOT A BIG DEAL.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT ALSO WORKING THROUGH THE REMAND ER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY…SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
NOT RISE MUCH IF FALL. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES (A DEGREE
OR TWO HERE AND THERE).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF A
GREY SKY (MAYBE BRIGHTENING A BIT NORTH OF ALBANY)…A FLURRY OR
TWO AROUND ALBANY AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING GENERALLY IN THE
30S…EXCEPT AROUND 40 WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY).

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST

AS OF 930 AM EST…SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED JUST S/W OF
ALBANY…BRINGING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD.
UNFORTUNATELY…THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION…IN ADDITION TO A THICKENING
MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION…SHOULD ENSURE THAT CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. SO…HAVE BOOSTED SKY COVER…AND
ALSO DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES…ESP FROM ALBANY N AND
W…WHERE SOME TEMPS MAY JUST RISE A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS.

WE HAVE ALSO ADDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLURRIES FROM ALBANY N AND
E BASED ON LATEST RADAR…ALTHOUGH P-TYPE MAY ACTUALLY FALL AS
SNOW GRAINS AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE INITIALLY GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM
CLOUD TOPS.

OTHERWISE…JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDING TO
RECENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/…
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUITE (GFS/NAM/GEM) ARE IN AGREEMENT DURING THIS
PERIOD. SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES SHARPEN THE TROF OVER QB/LB/NE
USA…PUSHING 1ST CDFNT IS THROUGH RGN FRI NT…ANOTHER SAT NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THIS TROF BEGINS EXITING EAST INTO THE ATLC ALLOWING
RIDGING AT 500 TO BUILD EAST AND A SFC HIGH TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
MIDWEST.

THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLE FEATURES IN THIS OTHERWISE BORING PATTERN.
FRI NT CDFNT WILL TRIGGER -SHSN WITH FROPA AND MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE
A LK RESPONSE…BUT LOW LVL FLOW IS WEAK AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. SAT NTS INTO SUNDAYS CDFNT IS ACTUALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER SHARP 500HPA SHORT WV…AND ITS CLIPPER
LOW MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW…PARTICULAR N AREAS. ALB PLUMES
FROM GEFS SHOW MOSTLY CLUSTERING AROUND A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH OF
SNOW AND A FEW 3 INCH OUTLIERS. OUTSIDE OF THESE REINFORCING COLD
SHOTS A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
— Changed Discussion —
WHILE GUID SUITE HAS HAD PROBLEMS PAST FEW DAYS IN RESOLVING
HOW VARIOUS FEATURES PHASE…THEY ARE MOVING TO GREATER
CONSISTENCY.

THE MAIN ISSUE IS HOW REX BLOCK OVER UPR GRT PLAINS BREAKS DOWN
AND ITS EFFECTS.

AT FIRST 500HPA RIDGE FM UPR GRTLKS INTO QB RESULTS IN SFC HIGH
BUILDING INTO E SEABOARD MON. IT SLIDES OFFSHORE TUE.

ECMWF/GFS EJECT THE 500HPA CUT OFF LOW INTO THE W GRTLKS MON…WHERE
IT GETS PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN
PROGRESSIVE TROF TUES. AS A 2ND SHORT WV DIVES SOUTH IN DIGGING
500HPA TROF OVER TH EAST…IT ASSISTS TO DRIVE A CDFNT THROUGH
RGN TUES. WITH 500HPA TROF TRANSITING THE RGN TUE AND TUES NT..SCT
-SHSN POSSIBLE AS CAA AFFECTS RGN.

WED THE 500HPA TROF HAS MOVED OFFSHORE RIDGING IS OCCURRING AT ALL
LVLS AND A MASSIVE SFC HIGH OVER THE MID WEST BUILDS EAST INTO
NE…BRINGING A RETURN OF FAIR WX. OTHERWISE TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL REMAIN NR OR STILL SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.

WHILE A COMPLEX AND LARGE SFC LOW SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE MISS VLY
WITH THE FIRST 500HPA CUT OFF SUNDAY…ALL THE MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM
SHUNT IT OFF TO THE EAST AND WELL SOUTH OF HERE…AS IT WEAKENS.
ONLY THE GEM SUGGESTS A COASTAL EVENT MONDAY THAT AFFECTS THE S
TIER. ALL GEFS ENSEMBLE PLUME MEMBERS ARE FLAT LINED….DRY. SO WILL
DISREGARD THE GEM FOR NOW AS ITS AN OUTLIER OF 1.
— End Changed Discussion —

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
— Changed Discussion —
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON…WITH CIGS GENERALLY VFR TO HIGH MVFR. WE EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING…AND POSSIBLY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT…BEFORE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD.
THEREAFTER…EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/FRI.

SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KALB THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON…BUT NO ACCUM IS EXPECTED…WITH VSBYS REMAINING VFR.

N TO NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON…BEFORE
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY INTO
THE N TO NW FRI MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK…
FRI NT-MON…MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
— End Changed Discussion —

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER SOME GAGES ARE BEING
IMPACTED BY ICE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
HOWEVER NOT A MILD AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE
SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS AS SOME SNOW MELT CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

THE CANAJOHARIE CREEK AT CANAJOHARIE EXPERIENCED A SHARP RISE DUE TO
SNOW MELT ON WEDNESDAY CRESTING ABOUT THREE-QUARTER A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE EARLY IN THE EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
BEGINNING THIS MONTH…JANUARY 2012…NWS ALBANY WILL BE ISSUING
MONTHLY CLIMATE REPORTS FOR GLENS FALLS (GFL)…POUGHKEEPSIE
(POU)…BENNINGTON (DDH) AND PITTS FIELD (KPSF). IN ADDITION
SEASONAL AND ANNUAL CLIMATE REPORTS WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THESE
SITES. ALSO…WE STARTED ISSUING DAILY CLIMATE REPORTS FOR DDH AND
PSF ON JANUARY 19TH.

JANUARY 2012 STATS…

ALBANY NY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 28.6 DEGREES / 6.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION: 2.26 INCHES / 0.33 INCHES BELOW NORMAL
SNOWFALL: 7.5 INCHES / 10.1 INCHES BELOW NORMAL

DESPITE BEING 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH IT DOES NOT MAKE
THE TOP 10 WARMEST JANUARIES ON RECORD FOR ALBANY. IT MISSED MAKING
THE LIST BY 3.7 DEGREES.

TOP 10 WARMEST - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
1) 36.0 DEGREES 1932
2) 34.6 DEGREES 1913
3) 34.5 DEGREES 1933
4) 33.0 DEGREES 1937
5) 32.8 DEGREES 1990
6) 31.8 DEGREES 1906
7) 31.5 DEGREES 1838
8) 31.5 DEGREES 2006
9) 31.3 DEGREES 1995
10) 31.3 DEGREES 2002

AS FOR SNOWFALL…THERE WERE 11 DAYS WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING
THE MONTH…HOWEVER WE ONLY RECEIVED 7.5 INCHES. WE WERE FAR FROM
ONE OF THE LEAST SNOWIEST JANUARIES ON RECORD.

TOP 10 LEAST SNOWIEST - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1885
1) TRACE 1913
2) 0.5 INCHES 1911
3) 0.6 INCHES 1980
4) 0.6 INCHES 1916
5) 1.3 INCHES 1989
6) 1.3 INCHES 1921
7) 2.1 INCHES 1955
8) 2.1 INCHES 1902
9) 2.3 INCHES 1962
10) 2.5 INCHES 1906

THE GREATEST SNOW DEPTH WE HAVE HAD THIS WINTER AT THE ALBANY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN 4 INCHES AND THAT OCCURRED BACK IN
OCTOBER ON THE 29TH AND 30TH. THE GREATEST SNOW DEPTH IN JANUARY
WAS 2 INCHES ON THE 12TH AND 13TH.

GLENS FALLS NY…
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 26.0 DEGREES / 8.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION: 2.43 INCHES / 0.43 INCHES BELOW NORMAL

TOP 10 WARMEST - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1945
1) 28.9 DEGREES 1990
2) 28.5 DEGREES 1995
3) 28.1 DEGREES 1950
4) 27.8 DEGREES 2006
5) 27.4 DEGREES 2002
6) 27.1 DEGREES 1953
7) 26.4 DEGREES 1949
8) 26.3 DEGREES 1998
9) 26.0 DEGREES 2012
10) 25.2 DEGREES 1989

POUGHKEEPSIE NY…
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 32.2 DEGREES / 6.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION: 2.14 INCHES / 0.94 INCHES BELOW NORMAL

TOP 10 WARMEST - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
1) 34.8 DEGREES 1990
2) 33.9 DEGREES 1950
3) 33.8 DEGREES 2006
4) 33.0 DEGREES 1995
5) 32.8 DEGREES 2002
6) 32.8 DEGREES 1998
7) 32.2 DEGREES 2012
8) 31.9 DEGREES 1949
9) 31.5 DEGREES 2007
10) 31.4 DEGREES 1953

BENNINGTON VT…
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 28.3 DEGREES / 7.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION: 1.73 INCHES / 1.02 INCHES BELOW NORMAL

LOOKING BACK TO 2000…JANUARY 2006 WAS WARMER WITH AN AVERAGE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE 31.2 DEGREES AND 2002 WITH 29.4 DEGREES.

PITTS FIELD MA…
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 26.6 DEGREES / 6.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION: 3.19 INCHES / 0.27 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL

LOOKING BACK TO 2000…JANUARY 2006 WAS WARMER WITH AN AVERAGE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE 29.1 DEGREES AND 2002 WITH 28.5 DEGREES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM…IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM…SNYDER
LONG TERM…SNYDER
AVIATION…IAA
HYDROLOGY…IAA
CLIMATE…IAA

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