January 31, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MILD AIR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY…FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/…
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTEMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE LITTLE ELSE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 400 PM…IT HAS BEEN BECOME UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY IN AN
ALREADY MILD AND RATHER SNOWLESS WINTER…AT LEAST FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE TOPPED OUT IN THE 50-55 RANGE FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD…CLOSER TO 40 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE
THERE ARE STILL SOME CLOUDS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH
LOOKS TO BE SLOWING DOWN ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT…SATELLITE
PICTURES ACTUALLY INDICATE A STRATUS CLOUD SHIELD EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS…WORKING TOWARDS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

THE CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL FORECAST CLOUD MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST. IT INDICATED THAT THE
CLOUDS PROBABLY JUST GET TO ABOUT ALBANY…NOT ADVANCING ANY FURTHER
SOUTH.

DURING THE EVENING…THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH
OF ALBANY…PARTLY CLOUDY ALBANY AREA…MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH. ONCE
AGAIN THE CLOUDS COVER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL ANY LOCATION GETS
TONIGHT.

IF THE CURRENT THINKING RINGS TRUE…MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT IN THE 30S…
(EXCEPT DOWN IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY) WHERE IT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THE LONGEST WITH THE LIGHTEST WIND. THERE…TEMPERATURES COULD
ACTUALLY DIP TO AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO FALL THERE.

FURTHER NORTH…AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT…THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT AND
BEYOND. ONCE ANY CLOUDS MOVE IN…TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE A LITTLE
AND THAT IS WHAT WE CARRY IN THE GRIDS.

NEVERTHELESS…IT MIGHT BE JUST COLD ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN (WARMER ALOFT) MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK
PARK AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. WILL HIGHLIGHT A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) FOR THOSE AREAS
ONLY. CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES YET.

FURTHER SOUTH…ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BY THAT TIME…A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE
TEMPERATURES SAFELY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH IN PIECES ON WEDNESDAY…AS THE
THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES TOO LOOK DIFFUSE. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD MIXING AHEAD AND RIGHT WITH AT LEAST THE FIRST FRONT. AS A
RESULT…TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MILD…ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S…POSSIBLY UPPER 50S IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY…40S ELSEWHERE.

AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH…SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE THE POPS ARE
HIGHEST. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
RAIN…POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
ADIRONDACK PARK BY LATE IN THE DAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. HOWEVER…THIS FRONT WILL
DELIVER A MORE SEASONABLE POLAR AIR MASS. WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND A NORTH WIND PRODUCING MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT…TEMPERATURES WILL BACK TO THE 20S MOST PLACES…TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS PARK. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA LOOKS TO TAKE CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF…12Z GFS AND EVEN GFS
ENSEMBLES TAKE A WAVE THAT FORMS ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION (PERHAPS NO
CLOUDS FROM IT) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN JUST A LITTLE OVER SEASONABLE
HIGHS…GENERALLY IN THE 30S BY DAY (AROUND 40 MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD)…AND 20S…EXCEPT TEENS NORTH
OVERNIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
THE AFOREMENTIONED MASSIVE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGHOUT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS PERIOD. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE THIS WILL BE A POLAR…NOT ARCTIC AIR MASS. WITH
THE LACK OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES (EXCEPT THE ADIRONDACK PARK) THIS
AIR MASS WILL LIKELY MODERATE A LITTLE WITH TIME.

MOST OF GUIDANCE SUITES CONTINUE TO KEEP IT DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER…AS USUALLY THERE ARE AN ASSORTMENT OF FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT. CMC GEM DEVELOPS 500HPA TROF SAT INTO SUN OVER E GRTLKS
WITH SFC LOW ALONG NC COAST WITH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS/PCPN SPREADING
INTO MID ATLC N OF SFC LOW SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO FCA SUN NT. THIS
500HPA TROF SEEMS TO BE SPURIOUS AS THREE SHORT WAVES COME OUT OF
NOWHERE TO PHASE.

OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPS AN EASTERLY WAVE TYPE FEATURE ON MID
ATLC/SE COASTS MONDAY…BUT KEEPS CLOUDS AND CHC PCPN S OF RGN TILL
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THEY SPREAD N IN BUILDING EAST COAST 500HPA RIDGE
AND ITS SSW FLOW. MEANWHILE 00UTC ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THIS INVERTED
TROF MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND RH/POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AT BAY
THROUGH TUE IN EXTENDED FORECAST PRODUCT.

18UTC PLUMES HAVE 17 OF 20 MEMBERS DRY…ONE SUPER WET OUTLIER AND
TWO WITH A FEW TENTHS. THE EUROPEAN ALSO CAME IN DRY…KEEPING ANY
AN ALL SYSTEMS (WEAK THAT THEY ARE) TO SOUR SOUTH.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY…THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
POSSIBLE SYSTEM BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW…BUT RATHER MORE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS MARGINAL FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.

FOR NOW…WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD…GENERALLY 35 TO 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND MID 20S TO LOWER
30S WELL NORTH OF ALBANY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS NORTH…20S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PERIOD WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING…EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALM TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE TAF SITES FOR
MOST OF TONIGHT. BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
CIGS AND MVFR/VFR VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. AT KPOU MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST AS OF NOW.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY AROUND 16Z TO 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AT
AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK…
WED NT-SUN…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
RIVER FLOWS CONTINUE TO RECEDE…ALTHOUGH SOME GAGE SITES REMAIN
IMPACTED BY ICE. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE RIVERS
THROUGH THE WEEK…OTHER THAN THOSE AREAS WHERE BREAK UP ICE JAMS
ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY. A WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY…WHICH IS WHEN SOME BREAK UP ICE JAMS MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER…DUE TO ICE NOT BEING VERY THICK…BREAK UPS WILL LIKELY
NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS.

ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH) AND WILL HAVE NO EFFECTS ON MAIN STEM RIVERS.
SNOW MELT DURING THE MID WEEK WILL REFREEZE AT NIGHT…WITH ONLY
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS AT MOST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM…GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…BGM
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/JPV

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