January 16, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 160603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
BEHIND A COLD FRONT…RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY TODAY…WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY…WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/…
AS OF 1245 AM EST…A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY…THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS…WITH
AN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION…MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE
VALLEYS SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. THIS BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT…AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN…AS THE SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BECOME OVERCAST AS WELL.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS…AND EVEN THERE…JUST A COATING IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR COMES IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD STAY DRY FOR MOST
AREAS…A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND…ESP IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS…WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS /UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ WITH A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN PLACE.

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET FOR THURSDAY NIGHT…ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ONCE AGAIN.

WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY…THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OF A RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS…ESP BY THE AFTN HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM…IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY…WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS /UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ON FRI NIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS…AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH OF THE AREA MAY SEE A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW FOR FRI NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
RAPIDLY MOVING CLIPPERS AND A GRADUAL COOLDOWN TO AROUND OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE CLIPPER THROUGH THE PERIOD…BRINGING PERIODIC SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. GRADUALLY A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE CORE OF COLDER
AIR SHOULD TRACK INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY…
WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE
PERIOD.

BECAUSE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER NATURE TO THE SYSTEMS
DURING THE PERIOD…RAPIDLY TRACKING THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN UPPER TROUGH…EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TOUGH TO RESOLVE. SO…INDICATING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TIMES WHEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
ENHANCED CHANCES. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND MOST
FAVORED IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. BY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY…TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL…WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S.

THE POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS THE REASON THE COASTAL
STORM TRACK IS SO FAR EAST…AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN SOME LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THAT
THE STORM TRACK GRADUALLY RETURNS CLOSER TO THE COAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND…BUT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME TO
MONITOR THAT. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 3-5 HAS NOT BEEN
RELIABLE SO FAR THIS WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVIAL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF
SITES UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME VERY
LIGHT PCPN SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. AFTER ABOUT 12Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ALL OF THURSDAY…THE EXPECT CLOUDS TO
BECOME SCT AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY…AND REMAINING
THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY…THEN BECOME CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK…

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED…BUT WITHIN
BANKS…DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND…LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MOST
OF THE LITTLE PRECIP THAT WILL OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS…WHICH WOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS. AS A RESULT…STREAM FLOWS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER THE
WEEKEND…RIVER AND LAKE ICE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM AND STRENGTHEN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM…FRUGIS
LONG TERM…NAS
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License