January 16, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 160905
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
STEADY PRECIPITATION…MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW…IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
AND MOHAWK VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
DAY…AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT SOME MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION…NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT…WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. SEVERAL TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND…BRINGING A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 400 AM EST…AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING…OVER THE
CAPITAL REGION…CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY…SOUTHEAST
ADIRONDACKS…LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS NOW
IN THE FORM OF SNOW…AS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER
HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND COLDER AIR HAS FILTERED IN. THIS AREA OF
SNOW WAS NOT DEPICTED BY ANY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE…INCLUDING HIRES
MODELS MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. WE HAVE RAISED POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS AND WILL MENTION SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH TO PERHAPS TWO INCHES IN THE MOIST
PERSISTENT SNOW. WE BELIEVE THE PRECIP IS BEING PRODUCED BY MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT…BEING
TRANSPORTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUSING ENHANCED
LIFT DUE TO OVER-RUNNING. SNOW IS FALLING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FRONT.

IN THEORY…THIS PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
LATE MORNING…AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. WILL STILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SINCE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
CREEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE INDICATING LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE LAST AREA TO SEE PRECIP TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING.
THIS PESKY SYSTEM FINALLY SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AROUND 4-6 PM.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE TO MAX READING OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS…BUT NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
PEAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE COOLER WITH
GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT…AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM…AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. TEMPS STILL
LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL…ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

ON FRIDAY…THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
FURTHER TO OUR WEST…WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER OUR
REGION. WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING SEEN IN MODEL
GUIDANCE…EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT…AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA…AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX SWING THROUGH THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TERMS
OF AMOUNTS/AREAS OF QPF DUE TO COMPLEX SMALL SCALE FEATURES
PRODUCING ASCENT. SINCE THIS POSSIBLE MINOR EVENT IS STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT…WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE REFINED. TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS…HOWEVER DUE TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES ONCE PRECIP STARTS RAPID SURFACE COOLING WILL OCCUR AND WILL
BE IN FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
RAPIDLY MOVING CLIPPERS AND A GRADUAL COOLDOWN TO AROUND OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE CLIPPER THROUGH THE PERIOD…BRINGING PERIODIC SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. GRADUALLY A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE CORE OF COLDER
AIR SHOULD TRACK INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY…
WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE
PERIOD.

BECAUSE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER NATURE TO THE SYSTEMS
DURING THE PERIOD…RAPIDLY TRACKING THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN UPPER TROUGH…EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TOUGH TO RESOLVE. SO…INDICATING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TIMES WHEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
ENHANCED CHANCES. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND MOST
FAVORED IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. BY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY…TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL…WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S.

THE POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS THE REASON THE COASTAL
STORM TRACK IS SO FAR EAST…AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN SOME LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THAT
THE STORM TRACK GRADUALLY RETURNS CLOSER TO THE COAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND…BUT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME TO
MONITOR THAT. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 3-5 HAS NOT BEEN
RELIABLE SO FAR THIS WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF
SITES UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME VERY
LIGHT PCPN SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. AFTER ABOUT 12Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ALL OF THURSDAY…THE EXPECT CLOUDS TO
BECOME SCT AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY…AND REMAINING
THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY…THEN BECOME CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK…

FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED…BUT WITHIN
BANKS…DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND…LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MOST
OF THE LITTLE PRECIP THAT WILL OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS…WHICH WOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS. AS A RESULT…STREAM FLOWS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH SOMEWHAT COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER
THE WEEKEND…RIVER AND LAKE ICE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM AND
STRENGTHEN. SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR MAY MOVE IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK…WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE ICE FORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…JPV
NEAR TERM…JPV
SHORT TERM…JPV
LONG TERM…NAS
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS/JPV

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