March 3, 2013 Forecast Discussion 2

000
FXUS61 KALY 021750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND…RESULTING IN CLOUDS…ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 1245 PM EST…AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC40 HAS A CLOSED PORTION TO
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER ERN PA…NRN NJ AND SRN NY. ONE VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
REGION…ANOTHER ONE IS MOVING SOUTH FROM NRN NY…AND SRN QUEBEC.
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RETURNED OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
AND PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL VT. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWED A
FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
BRIEFLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W/NW AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS NEXT SHORT-WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE NRN
ZONES PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL…ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN VT AND THE NRN
TACONICS. LESSER POP CHANCES WERE INCLUDED SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES…SLIGHT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
MAXES ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES COOLER IN MOST AREAS COMPARED FOR FRIDAY
MAXES…WITH PERHAPS EVEN COLDER MAXES ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SO…FOR MAXES…EXPECT MID TO UPPER 30S IN VALLEY
AREAS…WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/…
TONIGHT…THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTH…AND ALSO A SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA-E
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE
MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA…WHERE
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PROCESSES COMBINE WITH THE MOIST MID LEVEL NE
FLOW TO MAXIMIZE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION…THE INCREASING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP ENHANCE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES AND
RESULT IN MORE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMS OF UP TO 2-4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA…MAINLY ACROSS
HIGHER…WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. ELSEWHERE…1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE
CATSKILLS…WITH GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY NORTH…AND ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY…AND THE
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. FOR MIN TEMPS…HAVE GENERALLY SIDED
WITH…OR A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND…AS ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND
SOME WIND HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED…AND PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW THE LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS…AND
MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS…AND GENERALLY UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN BETWEEN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT…CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED…AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS…AND SLIGHT CHC ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS…FOR SNOW SHOWERS…ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS. EXPECT SUNDAY MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
VALLEYS…WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS…WITH SUN NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS…AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON
MONDAY…ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER…WITH MAINLY MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY NORTH…AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME BRISK…ESP MON AFTERNOON…WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES. BY MONDAY NIGHT…SOME CLEARING COULD OCCUR
LATE. GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS FOR MINS…WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS…AND 20S FOR VALLEY REGIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
THE BIG QUESTION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS WHAT IF ANY IMPACT
WILL EASTERN SEABOARD LOW DURING MID WEEK PERIOD HAVE ON THE FA. THE
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE…GFS…ECMWF AND GGEM ALL HAVE STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE ACRS NRN NEW ENG AND CANADIAN MARITIMES KEEPING LOW CENTER
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST RESULTING IN LITTLE IMPACT ON FA BEFORE
HEADING OUT TO SEA BTWN DELMARVA AND NC COAST. WILL STILL LEAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST…AS DO NOT WISH TO
REMOVE COMPLETELY BASED ON ONE CYCLE RUN…DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MID 30S TO
LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON…MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL HAVE NOW LIFTED TO VFR ALONG
WITH VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT KALB/KPOU…BUT WILL PERSIST AT
MVFR LEVELS AT KPSF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE
REGION CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
SEVERAL WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW…WHICH
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO
KALB/KGFL/KPSF. SINCE THE TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS IS VERY
ERRATIC…WENT WITH VCSH AT THESE TAF SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW
TENTHS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GENERALLY
6-12 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY…MUCH OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER
REGION PROMOTING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF. MVFR LOW
STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KGFL/KPSF/KALB…WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A
LITTLE GREATER. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
SUNDAY…WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR VCSH. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST GENERALLY 5-11 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK…
SUN-MON…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF WITH A SLIGHT
CHC AT KPOU.
TUE…VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
WED-THU…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. MAIN STEM RIVERS
SHOULD GENERALLY RECEDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS…IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM…KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…IRL
HYDROLOGY…IAA/KL

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