December 30, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 300637
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND AS A STORM
EXISTS THE MARITIMES TODAY. COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON
BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE HIGH WILL EXIT OFFSHORE MONDAY. THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
THESE WILL USHER IN SURGES OF COLDER AIR AS WELL AS TRIGGER BOUTS
OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
AS OF 1255 AM EST…THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
KENX RADAR SHOWS THAT A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER…AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEPARTING SFC STORM MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST…SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER…A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
IN SOUTHERN VT/NW MASS UNTIL DAYBREAK…AND SOME LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADKS/WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED TO
GENERALLY ONE HALF INCH OR LESS…ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
20S…WITH SOME TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS ATLANTIC
CANADA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND
NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN…WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE HUDSON VALLEY AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS…ALTHOUGH THE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE WORST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. THE
THREAT FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN/EVE
HOURS…AS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. CHILLY AIR POURING IN BEHIND THE STORM WILL ALLOW FOR COLD
TEMPS ON SUNDAY…WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. IT WILL
FEEL MUCH COLDER DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

THE WIND WILL START TO DIMINISH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
WITH CLEARING SKIES…TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE COLDEST LEVELS OF THE
WINTER SO FAR…WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA…AND SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
THE FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAST MOVING SFC BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S…AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

AT 500 HPA SERIES OF SHORT WVS SHARPEN THE MAJOR TROF OVER
QB/LAB…AND THIS RESULTS IN A FAST NW FLOW ACROSS THE FCA. LATE
MONDAY AN E-W CDFNT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION…PUSHING THE
SHALLOW EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO FCA. SFC HIGH BUILDS FM ONT
INTO E GRTLKS. THE FRONT REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS S TIER OF NYS AND
IN COMBINATION WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS PASSING IN FLOW ACTS AS A
CONDUIT FOR -SHSN AND POSSIBLY A MULTI LAKE BAND WED.

TUESDAY NY AND WED NT FLOW IS LT OVR RGN AND CLEAR AREAS SHOULD
SEE TEMPS PLUMMET. OTHERWISE MAINLY A COLD MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH
SCT -SHSN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
WILL HAVE A COLD START TO 2013…

NO BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON…HOWEVER WILL GET MUCH COLDER AS AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER BRINGING THE ARCTIC AIR IN THAN THE GFS. HAVE
FOLLOWED HPC LEAD WITH THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLDEST…WITH SINGLE
DIGITS LIMITED TO ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY
WITH BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT
TIMES HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG…ACTUALLY RATHER
LIGHT…WITH THE TEMPERATURES SO COLD WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY END
UP BEING NEEDED…THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED BELOW ZERO DEGREES AT ALBANY WAS
FEBRUARY 11TH 2011 WITH A LOW OF -5 DEGREES AND WE HAD A SNOW DEPTH
OF 15 INCHES.

WE DID DROP TO ZERO DEGREES AT ALBANY TWICE LAST WINTER ON BOTH
JANUARY 15TH AND JANUARY 22ND 2012.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION…ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE
MVFR WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER. ALTHOUGH KPOU IS ALREADY VFR…FLYING
CONDITIONS FOR CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS…AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE ALLOWS FOR SOME CONTINUED
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD BREAK UP AROUND
DAYBREAK…ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN…ALTHOUGH KPSF
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CIGS UNTIL MID MORNING AS THE FLOW
UPSLOPES THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONG STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS…ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW…SUCH AS KALB. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR WITH SOME JUST SCT LOW AND MID LEVEL STRATOCU CLOUDS. SKIES
WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK…
SUN NT-MON…VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON NT-WED…MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN/—SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
ALL PCPN NEXT 5 DAYS WILL FALL AS SNOW. LIQ EQUIV OF 0.25 TO 0.60
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

SOME RIVER GAGES ARE ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE EFFECTS AND
SOME RIVER LEVEL READINGS LOOK UNREPRESENTATIVE. STEADILY COLDER
AIR MASSES MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK AND ICE WILL FORM AND
THICKEN ON THE WATERWAYS IN THE ALY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…SNYDER
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS
SHORT TERM…GJM/SNYDER
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY…GJM

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