March 11, 2012 24 hour review

11:50PM Monday March 12, 2012
Forecast: 10:00PM Sunday March 11, 2012
Day 1: Monday March 12, 2012

The 24 hour results for day one are in.

Generally speaking, not too bad given that it was day one of ongoing trials. Specifically, the “east” scored a 4.4 for the 12 hour, and in the 24 hour a 4 on conditions, and a 1.9 on temperature. For the conditions I am quantifying them on a scale from 1 to 5, 5 being the best. Anything over 3 is decent. The temperature thing is just a numerical measure of how far off in degrees it was. The “central” had some issues. Conditions were alright, 4 for the 12 hour and 3 for the 24 hour. The temperatures however were way flip flopped because the speed of the main low was really underestimated, and it had an occluded front, so basically the error went to one end of the extreme or the other. The average was 16.7, so yeah… but, went and found an actual fronts map so don’t have to guess where they are, because they don’t always line up with the satellite- that was part of the issue. i’m going to incorporate that starting with tomorrows forecasts, so that should have positive results. As for the “West,” the scores were decent, and consistent between the 12hour and the 24 hour with 3.8 on the 12, and 3.7 across the board on the 24. Also, as already hinted at, forecasts are going to be scheduled every other day, opposed to an every day, because even a relatively superficial forecast like last night, takes way too much time. So, we’ll go with that for the first week, and then take it from there.


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