000
FXUS61 KALY 030938
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS…
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ON THIS OCCLUDED FRONT AND BECOME QUITE STRONG AS IT
DEPARTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY…EXCEPT WINDY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. INITIALLY THE AIR WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD
TODAY…BUT TURN COLDER TONIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/..
AS OF 400 AM…DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WESTERN AND NORTHER PORTIONS OF
OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY…BUT HOLD THEM TO OUR EAST. MESO-OBS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAD FAILED TO REACH FREEZING TO OUR
EAST. AT THE SAME TIME…WHILE THE SHOWERS HAVE LONG DEPARTED…NOW
WE ARE DEALING WITH PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ON THE RADAR SCOPE AS THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ASCENT IS SHALLOW BUT STILL THERE.
THEREFORE…WE FELT COMPELLED TO CONTINUE THE ADVISORY TO OUR
EAST…WHILE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY…TEMPERATURES WERE RISING
HIGHER THROUGH THE 30S. IN THE HUDSON VALLEY…NOT MUCH RISE…BUT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR SAFELY ABOVE 32.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WAS FORMING OFF THE DELMARVA…BUT THIS
SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WITH ITS FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MIDDAY.
A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY AREAS…WINDY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE
POTENTIAL WIND TO 50KTS DROPPING AS LOW AS ABOUT 5000 FEET (850
MB) BUT WITH AN INVERSION HOLDING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE MEAN
WIND FLOW LOOKS WSW WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM
MIXING INTO VALLEY AREAS.
DECIDED AGAINST ANY WIND FLAGS. THE STRONGEST WIND APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE TERRAIN HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET…ESPECIALLY THE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL MENTION THIS IN OUR HWO BUT NO WIND ADVISORY.
THE DAY CREW CAN ADD ONE IF NEED LATER ON.
ONCE THE OCCLUDED FRONT GOES THROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL
AWAY…SOMEWHAT BETTER MIXING. THE WARMEST H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE
EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH VALUES WELL ABOVE 0C…BUT THEN FALLING
BACK TO 0C AND SLIGHTLY COLDER DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BEST
MIXING TAKES PLACE. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND THE MIXING…EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AROUND 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT…WELL INTO
THE 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS…40S NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY…WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/…
DEEPER COLD AIR LOOKS DELAYED UNTIL THE UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION MONDAY AND BEYOND…BUT GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
BE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE SHOULD BE JUST SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FLURRY IN
MOST OTHER AREAS. WITH THE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND THE GRADUAL
COOLING…HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S…SOME MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S…WITH LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/…
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY…AND DESPITE BEING TO OUR EAST…THE GFS/ECMWF
BOTH INDICATE THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL INITALLY BE VERY COLD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S…AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
BRING MILD AIR TO THE REGION BEGINING WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND…THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY. GFS BRINGS A BAND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH COLDER AIR
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A GIANT UPPER LOW
AND LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY…THIS SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF PCPN…SO THAT IT REMAINS QUITE
MILD WELL INTO FRIDAY…WITH ANY PCPN NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH…THE
ECMWF HAS VERY COLD AIR INVADING THE ENTIRE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH MILD AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S…AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
AS OF 1230 AM…STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET HAS BLASTED THE AREA OF PCPN
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…AND
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN INDICATED BY RADAR UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. AS A RESULT…HAVE CUT WAY BACK ON THE PCPN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH BOTH KALB/KPOU HAVING VCSH IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH 14Z…WITH ONLY A TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA THROUGH
10Z. THE PCPN AREA HAS NOT CLEARED KGFL YET SO STEADY -SNPL FORECAST
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z…THEN VCSH AFTER THAT THROUGH 14Z AND A TEMPO
GROUP FOR -FZRAPL THROUGH 11Z.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KGFL/KPOU FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR EVEN
WITHOUT PCPN. AT KALB ONLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST DUE TO THE GUSTY
SOUTH WIND EXPECTED THERE KEEPING LOW LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
IFR CONDITIONS. LLWS ALSO FORECAST AT KGFL/KPOU SINCE SURFACE WINDS
ARE GENERALLY CALM BUT A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND
WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KTS. WITH THE SURFACE WINDS ALREADY GUSTY AT
KALB…LLWS WAS NOT NEEDED THERE.
AFTER 14Z MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 17Z
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KGFL/KPOU THROUGH NOON
SATURDAY…WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS AT KALB AND GUSTS OF 18 TO
20 KTS. AFTER 17Z EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS…WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK…
LATE SAT NIGHT…VFR. WINDY.
SAT NIGHT-MON…VFR. BREEZY.
MON NIGHT-WED…VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
0.30 TO 0.50 INCH QPF…MAINLY AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT…BUT A PORTION OF THAT WILL BEGIN AS SNOW…SLEET AND
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS NORTH OF
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
SNOW MELT AND SOME RUNOFF MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES OVER
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL TURN QUITE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY…ENDING ANY SNOW MELT SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY LATE MONDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOVE TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. SNOW MELT WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A RESULT BUT WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT
TO RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN MODEST INCREASE IN FLOW RATES AND
RIVER LEVELS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ001.
NY…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ043-054-061-084.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…NAS
LONG TERM…GJM
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…NAS
