February 24, 2012 Forecast Evaluation

Forecast Evaluation for snow event: February 24, 2012
Time of evaluation: 12:50pm Thursday March 01, 2012
10PM Forecast Probabilities for February 29, 2012: 60%D, 40%C, 0% ED
Outcome: Closing
Storm type: http://glenallenweather.com/links/stormtypes.htm
Forecast rating (1-5): 4 (Good)
Forecast handling (1-5): 5 (Excellent)

-insert technical overview of the system&storm type-
Overall, a very good storm handling. Forecast updates expressed both sides of the possibilities- - what it would take to have a worse storm and what it would take to have a more benign storm. Probabilities followed suite accordingly- - non-restrictive probabilities, but non-explicit. Only negative aspect to storm rating and handling was during the 10pm update, which reflected a range of 1 to 3 inches by sunrise, but reflected a delay(60%) as slightly more probable than closing(30%)- - to date, 9 out of 11 storms in this time/amount range have resulted in closing, with 2/11 resulting in delay. This forecast/history discrepancy was due to the anticipated high water ratio of the snow- - resulting in more slush, opposed to slick powder- - a valid consideration, however, as it was noted in the forecast text that the outcome really could go either way (closing/delay) depending on exact totals and morning temperatures, it would have been wiser to yield to overwhelming historical support and give the greater probability(60%) to the closing, and 40% to the delay. Otherwise, a flawless forecast.

  • Pay attention to historical precedent, and note current deviations

Overall storm handling: 4 (Good)

1: Poor
2: Mediocre
3: Fair
4: Good
5: Excellent

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