Febryary 15, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 151133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY…BRINGING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES…ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/…
— Changed Discussion —
AS OF 615 AM…NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT GRIDS. THE HOURLY
POP GRIDS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.
LOW CHANCE ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS
MORNING…REFLECTING THE SPOTTY AND LIGHT NATURE OF ANY PCPN ON AREA
RADARS. ECHO COVERAGE ON AREA RADARS IS ALSO SLOWLY DECREASING.
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS ARE ON TARGET AND WERE NOT CHANGED. NO FORECAST
PRODUCTS REQUIRED UPDATING WITH THIS ENHANCED SHORT TERM UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 400 AM…AFTER AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED PCPN MOVED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES A FEW HOURS AGO…RADAR ECHOES ARE ONCE AGAIN
SPOTTY AND LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE PCPN THAT
DOES EXIST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. SO WILL ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING…WITH POPS
SLOWLY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST AREAS BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON…THEN MAINLY DRY BY MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST OF THE DAY…BUT MAY
DECREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS DURING AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
— End Changed Discussion —

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…
A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
MOS FORECASTS INDICATE SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION…BUT SATELLITE PICS INDICATE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES…SO FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE
THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THAT MUCH TONIGHT. HAVE FORECAST SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE REGION…WITH SOME AREAS OF
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

THU-THU NT…NEXT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST DURING THURSDAY…AS ONE WEAK LOW TRACKS INTO AND
ACROSS SE CANADA…WITH AN EVEN WEAKER SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING ENE. EXCEPT FOR THE NAM…MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST RELATIVELY LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS (A THIRD OF AN
INCH OR LESS) ACROSS THE REGION. PCPN TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
SNOW NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY…WITH MAINLY RAIN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH…AND A
DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES SOUTH. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S…AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 30.

SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES WELL TO OUR EAST…BUT THE MAIN PRODUCER OF PCPN ON
FRIDAY WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER…A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL STILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LINGERING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY…TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THEN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BECOMES MUDDLED.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS…IF AND WHERE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY PHASE POSSIBLY ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN FACTORS WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WITH ORIGINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EMERGING ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROFS AND HOW THEY WILL EVENTUALLY
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER.

THE 00Z GFS HAS BECOME THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL BY FAR IN TERMS OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE GGEM AND ECMWF HAVE THE COASTAL LOW SUPPRESSED MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH AND ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROF. THERE ARE A
HANDFUL OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DEPICT A NOR`EASTER AFFECTING
THE REGION SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS…SO WILL START TO AT
LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STORM AND RAISE POPS TO 30
PERCENT FOR OUR AREA.

WHETHER OR NOT THE NOR`EASTER IMPACTS THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND…THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
SOME FOG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBY HAS DEVELOPED AT KPOU AS LOW
LEVELS HAVE BECOME SATURATED. WILL MENTION THROUGH AROUND 14Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS AT KALB AND KGFL
DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN PLACE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR
RANGE. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH DRIER AIR.

WINDS TODAY WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE…SHIFTING TO A
MAINLY NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 TO 7 KT.

OUTLOOK…
WED NT-THU AM…VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU PM-FRI…MVFR/IFR. -RA/-SN LIKELY.
FRI NT-SAT…VFR. SLGT CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
SAT NT-SUN…MAINLY VFR…ALTHOUGH LOW PROB OF IFR WITH SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
GAGES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ICE EFFECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY…IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER…LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THIS
TIME.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT…WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…JPV
AVIATION…JPV
HYDROLOGY…KL/GJM

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