February 11, 2012 Forecasr Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 111505
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE…AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER OF LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 10 AM EST…BULK OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW HAS
ENDED ACROSS FA. THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING AS FLOW AT KGFL BRIEFLY WENT NORTHERLY
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY HAVE
RESULTED IN A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RENSSELAER COUNTY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FA WERE IN GENERAL BETWEEN A DUSTING AND
AN INCH. EXPECT A LULL IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PA. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS WITH EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF FA AND TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA THIS AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS IN.

AS OF 630 AM…HAVE LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
BRING FORECAST IN BETTER LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 430 AM…THE LOCAL AREA IS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT/ARCTIC
BOUNDARY PRESSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE HAD WEAK
FORCING AND TEMPERATURES DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE REMAINED LARGE
IN MANY LOCATIONS. IT REALLY HAS NOT SNOWED EARLY THIS MORNING.
FINALLY GETTING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AT
KALB AS CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED. INDICATIONS ARE WE SHOULD GET SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES
DECREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ONLY A DUSTING IS EXPECTED WHERE
IT DOES SNOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY REMAINING WELL
OFFSHORE…AND THE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/…
THE LOW WILL HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH…THEN WE WILL HAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN IN LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP. THE AVERAGE SURFACE
WATER TEMPERATURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM GLERL IS 41 DEGREES. THE
FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL FAVOR MULTIBANDS. THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST BY THE LAKE EFFECT. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD IN MONDAY CUTTING OFF THE LAKE EFFECT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK…AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. A
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ARE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM. H850 TEMPS ARE NEAR NORMAL
BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES…AND THE ECMWF IS INDICATING
TEMPS IN THE -5C TO -8C RANGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS DAY. WE ARE
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE U30S TO L40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS…AND
LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE MTNS. VERY LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS OVER
THE MTNS…AND LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS..AND OVER THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY…THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH
MILD AIR FILTERING INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE NAO CONTINUES TO BE
WEAKLY POSITIVE…AND NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS LOOK IN PLAY PRIOR TO
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY…AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE MID WEEK. ON THURSDAY…IT CRESTS OVER
PA AND NY. H925 AND H850 TEMPS ARE NOT ANOMALOUSLY WARM ACCORDING
THE LATEST GEFS /LESS THAN 1 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL/…BUT
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-FEB…WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEYS…AND MID
AND U30S OVER THE MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY…THE MEDIUM GUIDANCE AND HPC GRAPHICS
DEPICT A PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE SHORT-WAVE MAY FOCUS SOME SCT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FRI MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILES LOOK WARM THIS FAR
OUT WITH THE SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TOWARDS SRN
QUEBEC. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN FRI PM WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSAGE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE FRI PM INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. WE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
MILDER HPC MIN TEMPS THU NIGHT…AND MAX TEMPS ON FRI…WHICH ARE
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

OVERALL…TEMPS AVERAGE STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO…AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MEANWHILE…LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING ERN NY IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER
00Z/SAT WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT AGL.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING…AND THEN BE FROM
THE S/SW AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON…AND
LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT FROM THE W/SW AT 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK…
SAT NITE-SUN…VFR-MVFR. CHC -SHSN AT KALB AND SLIGHT CHC KGFL AND
KPOU.
SUN NT-MON NT…VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT…VFR/MVFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
WED…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
GAGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY ICE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS…AND AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER…TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA
NEAR TERM…IAA/11
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…WASULA
AVIATION…WASULA
HYDROLOGY…IAA

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