| Day | Date | Year | Impact | Total | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | January 2 | 2012 | xxx | 00.10" | Snow | widespread lake effect resulted in periods of snow showers during the afternoon and evening(before 7p). Coating on grass/cars/curb by 6pm. Parts of Rt32 coated in tillson/rosendale. Schools on break til the 3rd. |
Totals, image1, image2, image3, radar1, radar2, radar3, radar4
000
FXUS61 KALY 021803
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS…
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING IN OTHER AREAS. AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING
IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 1245 PM…EXPANDED CHANCE POPS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS AS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EXTENDING OFF LAKE ERIE
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
RECEIVED A SNOWFALL REPORT OF 5 INCHES FROM OLD FORGE. SPOTTER
NOTED THE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN VARIABLE IN INTENSITY BUT HAVE BEEN
MUCH STEADIER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW BAND IS IMPRESSIVE
CAN SEE ITS INLAND EXTENT OF 110 MILES ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTY INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY ON KENX`S RADAR.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES…DEW POINTS AND SKY
COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
AS OF 1015 AM…PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CURRENT POP/WX GRID
FORECAST ACCURATELY REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. HAVE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS.
AS OF 630 AM…LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NOW IMPACTING NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. HOWEVER…A QUICK LOOK AT THE OLD FORGE WEBCAM
INDICATED SNOW SHOWERS HAD NOW QUITE MADE IT THAT FAR SOUTH YET.
ALSO…RIGHT NOW THE BAND HAD A MORE CELLULAR LOOK TO IT.
WITH TIME…THIS BAND COULD BECOME QUITE FORMIDABLE PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR…MAINLY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTED OUR
DECISION TO HAVE GONE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON…A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTY. CONFIDENCE ONLY REMAINS MARGINAL FOR A HEADLINE (LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH) FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THEREFORE…THE WATCH
REMAINED THERE.
HAD A SHOWER OF GRAUPEL THAT PRODUCED A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL
AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUILDING A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR AGO.
RADAR STILL INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION…SO UP SLIGHT CHANCES/ISOLATED A LITTLE MORE FOR THIS
MORNING MOST PLACES. AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO
COVERED THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 30S REGION WIDE…EXCEPT SOME 20S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE IF ANY
TODAY…AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A LITTLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 430 AM…A LINE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING GRAUPEL ACCUMULATION UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AT OUR OFFICE. THIS LINE WAS MOVING VERY
QUICKLY. A NOWCAST WILL BE ISSUE TO HANDLE THIS LINE WHICH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EAST.
*PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST***
AS OF 400 AM…RADAR INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
HAS DEVELOPED OFF ONTARIO WITH DBZ VALUES APPROACH 40 IN SPOTS!
HAVEN`T SEEN ANY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW AT ANY TIME. SO FAR…THIS BAND HAS REMAINED
OUT OF HERKIMER COUNTY. HOWEVER…WITH TIME…IT WILL LIKELY WORK
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER LATER THIS MORNING…THEN SLOW BEGIN
SINKING SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES AND LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTY. WE EXAMINED THE EXPERIMENTAL KVIE PROGRAM WHICH INDICATE THE
INLAND EXTEND OF THIS BAND COULD REACH OVER 100 MILES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE TO 10000 FOOT FLOW LINES UP PRETTY WELL
IN A 275 VECTOR. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BECOME EXTREME AS
THE FLOW IS OVER UNUSUALLY WARM LAKE WATERS (47F) FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL FROM ABOUT -10C TO -20C BY LATE
IN THE DAY!
THE BAND MIGHT ACTUALLY GET DISRUPTED BY A SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE/COLD FRONT…EVIDENT OVER WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROBABLY VEER THE FLOW MORE TO A 310 DEGREE WITH TIME BUT NOT
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS…6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW
COULD FALL ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO HAMILTON COUNTY…3
TO 6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA…AFTER ONE MORE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH…IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TODAY DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THERE TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE AREA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH STRONG DESCENDING AIR PARCELS INDUCING SUBSIDENCE.
HOWEVER…AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING…LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE…DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE REPLACED BY UPWARD
MOTION. THESE TO FACTORS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO RING OUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN…MORE SCATTERED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW…A WINDEX EVENT (WINTER
INSTABILITY EVENT) COULD TAKE PLACE MEANING SOME AREAS MIGHT SEE A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW SQUALLS…GENERALLY LASTING UNDER HALF AN
HOUR…THAT COULD NEVERTHELESS REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES. THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY NOT ETCHED IN STONE…IT IS A
POSSIBILITY AND COULD BRIEFLY REEK HAVOC ON TRAVEL. WE WILL MONITOR
THE POSSIBILITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY START OUT ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS…BUT
WILL QUICKLY DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN…ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MORE SLOWLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS…THROUGH THE 30S AS THE DAY WEARS
ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY…THE ARCTIC FRONT…WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT AND SHIFTING THE FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
FLOW FAVOR MULTIBANDS LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS. AGAIN LOCAL INLAND
EXTENT TOOL INDICATES THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL EXTENT INLAND INTO
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH THE WESTERN MOST
PORTIONS OF FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO WARNING SO WILL LEAVE THE WATCH
AS IS FOR NOW FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR FULTON AND/OR MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. IN
ADDITIONS THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST…UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS…NORTHERN TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA…PRODUCING MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-3 INCHES.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT FOR WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE TEENS MOST PLACES FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT…SINGLE DIGITS SOME OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALL SIDES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT…WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE…TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE AT ALL ON
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY AROUND
20 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT…MID 20S MID HUDSON. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST…TEENS WILL DO IT FOR HIGHS…WITH ONLY SINGLE
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
TUESDAY NIGHT…LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS MOST
VALLEY PLACES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD…ZERO TO 10 BELOW
HIGHER TERRAIN AND PLACES WELL NORTH OF ALBANY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT AS LOW AS AROUND -15F IN
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WHEN FACTORING IN THE WIND…EQUIVALENT
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE APPROACH -30F!
AS COLD AS THIS IS…THESE VALUES WILL NOT APPROACH RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR THE DATE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER US EARLY…THEN RETREATS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER…AS USUAL…THE MID LEVELS WILL WARM UP THE FASTEST…ANY
MODERATION SLOW TO HAPPEN AT THE SURFACE. ALSO…CLOUDS COULD
INCREASE WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION…HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES…TEENS HIGHEST TERRAIN.
GENERALLY WENT WITH THE COLDER MET NUMBERS…EVEN A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THEM ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THERE IS AN ATTEMPT FOR ANOTHER LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IN THE
LONG TERM…YET…THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE TO SUPPRESS
PHASING POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RATHER LOW.
A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER SHOT
OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER…IT SEEMS THE FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL
FOR LARGE SCALE ACCUMULATIONS AND TRENDS ARE FOR THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF WHICH WOULD LIMIT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION.
THE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
UNFOLDING. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WARMER AIR ADVANCES NORTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
COULD EXTEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL AND
PRECIPITATION AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU TAF SITES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (18Z TUESDAY). BROAD AND
INCREASING COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT AND SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.
GENERALLY…THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES IN A MAJOR
WAY. HAVE MAINLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS…BUT HGFL AND KALB DID INCLUDE A FOUR TEMPO
PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WHEN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IS MOST
LIKELY. AT KGFL THAT WOULD BE BETWEEN 02/20Z AND 02/24Z. AT KALB IT
WOULD BE BETWEEN 03/03Z AND 03/07Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON…WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT TO SPEEDS OF 10 TO 12 KTS…WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE…THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH GUST OF AROUND 25 KTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK…
TUE AFTN…VFR/MVFR…CHC -SHSN.
TUE NT…VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NT…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SN/-SHSN.
THU-FRI…VFR/MVFR. CHC —SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TO START OFF THE NEW YEAR. ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AS A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST WITH A
REINFORCING BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ALONG
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES…BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AID IN THE
FORMATION OF ICE ON MANY BODIES OF WATER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NYZ042.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-
033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ038.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA/HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM…IAA/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…BGM
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…IAA/BGM
