Variation

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS…
— Changed Discussion -A LARGE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND…PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOW. A MORE POTENT STORM MAY FORM
AND PASS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT…WHICH COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW TO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. ON SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM
DEPARTS LEAVING A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.- End Changed Discussion —

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/…
— Changed Discussion —SNOW INTENSITY VARYING FROM HEAVY SNIZZLE…LOTS OF LITTLE
FLAKES…TO MOVIE SNOW…YOU KNOW…THE BIG FAT FLAKES THAT FALL
STRAIGHT DOWN LIKE IN THE MOVIES. ALL HEADLINES BUT LITCHFIELD AND
DUTCHESS COUNTY HEADLINES REMAINING AS IS…UNTIL AREA OF SNOW
PIVOTS AND SNOW ENDS FROM WEST AND SOUTHWEST TO EAST AND
NORTHEAST. SNOW SHOULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT AS THE WESTERN NOSE OF THE
UPPER DEFORMATION ORGANIZES.

NOSE OF HEAVY BAND INTO LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES…AND
SOME AREAS COULD SEE TOTALS OF 8 INCHES OR 9 INCHES LOCALLY BY
LATER TONIGHT…WHILE NORTHERN LITCHFIELD HAS BEEN SEEING VERY
LITTLE SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON…AND SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW ARE TRACKING TOWARD NORTHERN LITCHFIELD FOR THIS
EVENING. SO…UPGRADING TO WARNING FOR LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS
WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES.

THERE HAVE BEEN QUITE A RANGE OF SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS THE
REGION…AND CONSIDERING THE CHARACTER OF THE PRECIPITATION
EVOLUTION ON THE RADAR…SNOW RANGES SEEN IN THE TEXT FORECAST MAY
NOT BE BROAD ENOUGH…AS WITHIN SHORT DISTANCES AND ELEVATIONS…
THERE COULD BE A RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES TO 8+ INCHES. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE AREAS OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE SNOW WILL END IN THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES COULD SEE THE HIGHER
END OF ADVISORIES IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS THE BAND SHIFTS THROUGH
THOSE AREAS. IN SOME WARNING AREAS…ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL
SATURDAY MORNING PUSHES TOTALS TO THE WARNING AMOUNTS.

THERE COULD EVEN BE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES FROM THE HELDERBERGS TO
ALBANY/SCHENECTADY/TROY…BUT AGAIN IT WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION AND PIVOTING OF THIS BAND. LOCALIZED VERTICAL MOTION
MAXIMA CUTTING THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC ZONE WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS…SO FLUFFY AND DRY NATURE
TO SNOW WILL RESULT IN MORE ACCUMULATION FOR LESS LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. USING 15:1 RATIO…BUT WHERE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ON
RADAR…SOME 20:1 RATIOS ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT…ALTHOUGH
WESTERN AREAS WHERE SOME SMALL HOLES OF CLEARING COULD DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT…COULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES.— End Changed Discussion —

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