7:30pm September 30, 2010:
I hate it when they do stupid stuff over botched forecasts. It’s stupid and should not be. So the forecast has been calling for anywheres from 3-5 inches of rain today and tonight for about the past 36 hours. The rain is the result of moisture associated with what was tropical storm nicole down near miami, and the moisture has been combining with and getting pumped up a frontal system that extends all the way up to Canada. Anyway, so they’ve been calling for like 3-5 inches of rain. I was looking at the satellite late last night and I was like “gee, that rain is pushing awfully far to our west.” Come to find this morning that the plume of intense moisture was pushed to our west near binghamton and rochester, and with long range loops showing very little indication of any eastward movement, however there was a petruding batch of heavier rain which was obviously going to hit us on satellite for maybe 2 or three hours. But the forecasts were still calling for heavy rain all day and night with 3-5 inches. When it clearly was training to our west. Fast foward through out the day… we get some decent rain from about 7am until around 11 or so? In total it’s added up to around an inch of rain, while areas to our west have now picked up in 2-4 inch range. So, It stopped raining around 11ish? then the beginning of 8th period they issue that statement… so that’s maybe 1ish… at the time (and still) the NWS in Albany was still calling for heavy rain with an additional 2-3 inches, but ANYONE with eyes and a good sense of direction can clearly see on radar loops that the big plume of moisture is passing well to our west with Kingston on the eastern fringe, aka showers and drizzle. THERE WAS NO REASON TO CANCEL AFTER SCHOOL STUFF(unless a pipe broke in the school or something.. which is possible but has nothing to do with cancelling after school activities/9th/sports). Granted that we do have a high wind advisory, HOWEVER, “high wind advisory” means Nothing in Eastern Ulster county 90% of the time BECAUSE we’re smack dab between the Catskills and Birkshires/Taconics Which means that we’re basically in a safty ditch when it comes to high wind. And you’d have to either get a wind coming from the due north or south to hit us. although it is a little breezy, but nothing worth more than noting.
I mentioned that the plume was centered to the west of us before, and systems here move west to east, so at some point the rain axis does have to cross here obviously. Which is what it will tonight. However every time we have this crossing set up, the heaviest stuff always passes to our north before shifting east. There fore we just about always get only half of the potential precipitation, and it is generally lighter and shorter than forecasted, due to the NWS not wanting to under state it. HOWEVER people (like the district) actually do pay attention to these obvious understatments. Hence un-necessary reschedulings. Now there is an area of heavier rain centered over north carolina/virginia associated more directly with the remenents of nicole, and it is possible that this area may cross us as the rain axis moves to our east, therefore resulting in a few hours of heavier rain sometime between mid night and 7am. However, i see nothing to indicate anything capeable of causing street flooding, which is what any school related flooding would be the result of seeing that local streems will not crest until the afternoon.
Currently: NWS Albany
Tonight: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 62. Breezy, with a south wind between 18 and 21 mph becoming light. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
It’s dry cloudy and breezy right now. And I can’t see us getting more than 1, maybe 2 inches.
Bottom Line: If they decide to cancel the half day tomorrow, and issue a two hour delay, I will be very upset. (even though, from a record keeping stand point, a two hour delay in september would be a neat prize)
8pm september 30 2010
Thoughts on potential ways for a 2 hour delay tomorrow
•Power outtages. Winds forcast to die down tonight, but a scattered power outtage is possible. Potential: Low.
•Downed tree limbs. Same deal as the power outtages, though this seems a little more credible. Potential: Low
•Street Flooding. Clogged drains from newly fallen/blown down leaves. If heavy down pour in the early morning hours, could be an issue. Potential: Moderate.
•Creek Flooding. Potential for another round of heavier rain in the early morning hours. Creeks not expected to crest until afternoon, however. Potential: Low.