10a Jan 31

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A LOW OFF THE EAST COAST.
WHILE THE PATHS ARE NOT THAT FAR APART ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE…
100 TO 300 MILES…REGARDING WHERE THEY ARE WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE. THE GFS ALSO DEEPENS THE LOW AN ADDITIONAL 10 MB
BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE ONE GOOD THING…REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
WE FOLLOW…THE WEATHER WILL BE SNOW…ALL SNOW. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE ECMWF WILL ONLY GIVE US A FEW INCHES…NOT EVEN ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY…WHILE THE GFS WILL BURY MUCH OF THE REGION
UNDER A FOOT. WE WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN
LIGHT OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. HEAVIEST SNOWFALLS WILL BE IN
A WIDE BAND FROM THE CATSKILLS ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE REALLY GOOD NEWS IS THESE LATEST MODEL SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST RULE OUT SLEET…ICE…AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES RISE
FROM THE TEENS AND TWENTIES TUESDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL
AGAIN OPEN THE ICEBOX DOOR WITH A COLD BLAST OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY
AREA WHERE 850 HPA TEMPS ARE MINUS 20 TO MINUS 25 DEGREES.

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